Who Will Win the Grand National?

The Cheltenham Festival may now be in the record books for another year, but British racing fans don’t have to wait too long for the next major jumping show, with the Aintree Grand National meeting now looming large on the horizon. It all kicks off on Thursday 13th April, and as ever it is the most famous race of the National Hunt season which will take centre stage on the Saturday afternoon.

The race has been dominated by Irish runners in recent years, with Sam Waley-Cohen’s success aboard Noble Yeats in 2022 being the fourth consecutive year in which the prize has been claimed by a raider from the Emerald Isle. Will we be in for more of the same in 2023? Or can one of the British trainers keep the trophy on home soil?

Here we take a look at the race from a trends perspective using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk, highlighting the runners most likely to win the biggest betting race of the season.

10 Year Age Trends

When examining the past ten editions of the race, there has been a fairly strong trend in evidence amongst the placed horses, with 30 of the 40 runners to finish in the first four being between 8 and 10 years of age.

10 Year Ratings Trends

Not too low and not too high seems to be the pattern when it comes to the ratings of the placed horses, with none of the top four finishers over the past ten years being rated higher than 160, and only 3 of 40 (7.50%) rated at below 141. When looking at the current list of entries, that stat counts against last season’s first and second, Noble Yeats and Any Second Now, and Gold Cup third placed finisher, Conflated.

10 Year Weight Trends

Turning to the actual weight carried on the day, a burden of between 10st5lb and 11st seems to be the optimum, with 25 of the 40 top four finishers (62.5%) falling into that bracket. The exact weights for this year are subject to change, but with top weight Any Second Now having been confirmed for the race by connections, it would be a surprise were there to be any alterations between now and the day of the race. 

Other Factors

Irish Bred Runners Go Well - Seven of the past ten winners were bred in Ireland.

Proven Stamina a Plus - Seven of the past ten winners had previously won over at least three miles.

Summary: Wave The Each Way Value

One horse who fits all of the outlined trends is the Venetia Williams trained Quick Wave. As a 152 rated 10 year old, set to carry 10st11lb on the day, this Irish bred mare sits in the sweet spot from a statistical perspective. Further cause for optimism is the fact that she heads into the race right at the top of her game, having won three of her last four starts, most recently when giving 11lbs and a beating to the useful Snow Leopardess in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. It all went wrong for Quick Wave when hampered early in the Welsh Grand National in her only defeat so far this season, but at odds of 33/1 with BetUK, she looks worth backing to make amends.

Welsh Grand National – Facts and Stats

Grand National 2023 New Betting Sites & Betting Offers