Welsh Grand National – Facts and Stats

The festive period brings a real feast of racing action. Hot on the heels of Kempton’s excellent King George VI Chase meeting on Boxing Day, Tuesday afternoon sees the Welsh venue of Chepstow play host to its biggest and best contest of the season, with the latest edition of the Welsh Grand National.

The fences may not be quite as big as those encountered in the race’s Aintree counterpart, but this race places similar demands upon staying and jumping ability. Here we take a look at the previous winners of the race, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk in an effort to narrow down the 26-runner field.

Trainers with Previous Success

Legendary handler Martin Pipe leads the way in the all-time list with five previous wins. However, when looking solely at the trainers represented this year, six of the 23 handlers represented have shown they have what it takes to succeed. Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill and Paul Nicholls lead the way with two wins apiece.

Age Trends

There has been a wide spread of winners across the history of the race, ranging from a quartet of six-year-olds, to the gallant Raz De Maree who came home in front at the grand old age of 13 in 2017. However, when looking at the overall pattern, seven to ten years of age seems to be the sweet spot, with over 88% of winners having fallen into that age bracket.

Weight Carried

Half of the trick for the trainers ahead of these big field handicaps is to ensure their contenders run well enough to get into the race, but not so well so as to ruin their handicap mark – having a few pounds in hand from the handicapper is almost always essential when attempting to land a competitive event such as this.

When looking at the previous results of the race, it seems that somewhere between the bottom of the weights and the middle ground is the place to be here, with just over 72% of all winners having carried between 10st and 10st13lb on the day.

A Recent Run is a Major Advantage

In tackling a gruelling challenge such as this, runners must be at the absolute peak of their fitness if they are to have any hopes of coming home in front. Whilst trainers can work on a lot at home, there is no substitute for an actual race when getting a runner primed and ready for the big day. As such it is not too surprising to note that nine of the past ten winners had a previous run within 35 days of the event. Most of those winners had posted a decent performance in their tune-up, with eight of the nine having finished in the first three.

A Shortlist of Two

Applying the above age, weight, and recent run criteria to this year’s field reduces the list of contenders from 26 all the way down to two – with the runners from the yards of previous winning trainers all falling by the wayside.

For those interested in a trends-based bet for the big one, the two to focus on are Punitive from the powerful yard of Irish trainer Gordon Elliott, and Nicky Martin’s The Two Amigos. Punitive can be backed at 12/1 with Fitzdares, with The Two Amigos available at the nice each-way price of 25/1 with the same firm.

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