King George VI Chase – Ten Year Trends

There are few better times of year to be a sports fan than during the festive period. Hot on the heels of the FIFA World Cup, football fans have a full slate of fixtures to look to over the 26th and 27th of December, the PDC World Championships continues to a conclusion on the 3rd of January, whilst in the racing world, a crammed Boxing Day fixture list is lit up by one of the most famous contests on the jumps calendar.

We are of course speaking of the historic King George VI Chase at Kempton Park - scene of legendary displays from the likes of Kauto Star and Desert Orchid over the years. With the final field for the 2022 edition now taking shape, we take a look back at the results over the past ten years, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk in an effort to pinpoint the likely winner.

Trainer Trends

With a remarkable 12 wins in total, it is no surprise to see that multiple champion trainer Paul Nicholls has dominated this race in recent times. As is often the case with Nicholls, fans will likely face a dilemma in deciding which of his runners to back. At present, the Nicholls-trained Bravemansgame, Hitman, and Frodon are all entered for the Boxing Day showpiece.

A little surprisingly neither Nicky Henderson nor Willie Mullins holds an entry this year, whilst Colin Tizzard is now retired with son Joe having taken over the training operation. The Tizzards will be hoping Eldorado Allen can keep up the family’s solid form in the event.

Age Trends

Seven to eight years of age seems to be the sweet spot when seeking the winner of this staying chase. Whilst stronger over the past decade, the trend largely holds true over the history of the race, with close to 60% of all winners falling into this age bracket.

Looking at this year’s race, the five-year-old Red Happy would appear to be up against it, Paul Nicholls Hitman is younger than ideal at 6, whilst stablemate Frodon is now ten years of age.

Odds Trends

Despite containing so many well-known horses with established form lines, this hasn’t been the easiest race to predict for punters of late, with last year’s edition going to 28/1 shot Tornado Flyer, and Frodon coming home in front at 20/1 in 2020 – two results which have seen the average price of the winner over this period shoot up to shade under 9/1. That said, the race has still been landed by the market leader on four occasions over this spell – handing favourite backers a small profit of 35p to £1 level stakes.

Bravemansgame the Obvious Contender

As a seven-year-old hailing from the powerful Paul Nicholls yard, the betting market looks to have it right in rating Bravemansgame the one they all have to beat. That recent 40% strike rate of the favourites can also be taken as a positive sign for his chances.

Another to keep an eye on is fellow seven-year-old L’Homme Presse, who may even vie for favouritism on the day should the ground be soft. Those seeking an each-way shot at a decent price could do worse than consider the eight-year-old Eldorado Allen from the Joe Tizzard operation.

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