Group Stage Expected Goals Findings

The FIFA World Cup 2022 has certainly provided something of a rollercoaster ride for football fans. From the shocks of Saudi Arabia beating Argentina, and Japan seeing off both Spain and Germany, results certainly haven’t been the easiest to predict. As we head into the knockout stages, traditional powerhouse Germany have bit the dust, as have Belgium, who were officially rated the world’s second-best side heading into the finals.

With only Group G and H still to conclude, and the tension-packed knockout stages firmly on the horizon, we take this opportunity to look back at the Group Stages from an xG perspective, looking at the best attack, best defence, and best side overall, according to data presented by Newbettingsites.uk.

Top 5 Attacking Sides

The only table Germany will be topping this summer, thanks to that “surely it must have been out” Japan goal vs Spain. This German squad will likely be in for huge criticism back home, but there is a decent argument to be made that they were simply unlucky, winning the xG battle in all three of their games, to be rewarded only with a plane ticket back home.

France fill second spot having broken the 2.50 xG barrier in their two opening games, only for what was essentially a second string to muster only 0.63 xG in their loss to Tunisia. With the big guns set to be restored in the Last 16, they look like an offensive force to be feared.

England and Argentina have followed a similar pattern, with solid chance-creating performances in game 1 and game 3, sandwiching blips in game 2. Portugal meanwhile have recorded 2.63 xG against Uruguay, before dipping to 132 versus Ghana. With a defensively shaky South Korea in their final game, they may yet at least match the tallies of Argentina and England.

Top 5 Defensive Sides

Another appearance for Argentina and France in the Top 5. Argentina may have gotten off to the rockiest start imaginable in that stunner vs Saudi Arabia, but they have rebounded admirably. They may not be particularly easy on the eye at times but have been positively miserly at the back, rarely giving the opposition a sniff of a goal. Brazil meanwhile have simply continued their stellar defensive record from South American Qualifying, where Tite’s men conceded only 5 times across 17 fixtures. Both South American sides look set to make it tough for the opposition in the Last 16.

Spain’s huge possession stats contribute to their solid xG defensive performance, but they haven’t totally convinced on the odd occasions that they have come under pressure. France look more solid, having restricted the opposition to under 0.90 xG across all three games. Mexico go home due to their inefficiencies at the other end of the pitch. Despite that excellent defensive figure, they still lost the xG battle in two of their three games.

Top 5 Sides Overall

Team Average xG Difference Germany 2.15 Argentina 1.96 France 1.8 Brazil 1.43 England 1.23

Germany top the table, largely due to an off-the-charts xG of 6.52 in their closing game against Costa Rica when they had little option but to go out all guns blazing. No surprise to see both Argentina and France in there given their solid performances at both ends of the pitch, whilst the overall displays of Brazil would look an ominous sign for the opposition. And at last, an appearance for England who sneaks into the top five having been excellent in two of their three group games and pragmatic vs the USA.

A Look at the Last 16

The above table lists the six Last 16 fixtures which have been confirmed so far, complete with the average overall xG rating (xG For – xG against) of each of the sides. As we know, strange things can happen at this World Cup, but, on paper at least, Argentina, France and Spain deserve to be solid favourites in their respective games. England have a decent edge over Senegal but will need to be right on their game. Netherlands vs USA and Japan vs Croatia meanwhile look very tight and may be the games most likely to throw up yet another upset.

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