What Will Win the Lucky Last at the Cheltenham Festival


What Will Win the Lucky Last at the Cheltenham Festival 2023


As ever, the magical four days of the Cheltenham Festival represent the very best week of the year for fans of the National Hunt game. A meeting which never disappoints, things certainly got off to an excellent start in 2023, with the opening day providing brilliance and emotion in equal measure.

Much like all good things, the Cheltenham Festival must sadly come to an end, with the conclusion being reached upon the culmination of race number 28 – the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on Friday afternoon. By this stage of proceedings, punters will hope to be totting up their winnings for the week, but it is still always good to finish on a high.

Here we take a look at the closing race from a trend's perspective using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk, highlighting the runners most likely to come out on top in the finale to jumps racings greatest show.

Age of Winner

What Will Win the Lucky Last at the Cheltenham Festival

One of the newer races at the festival, this contest only made its debut in 2009 but is already showing a strong bias towards the younger runners. Of the 14 editions to date, none have been won by a runner older than seven years of age. Six-year-olds boast the best record overall, having been responsible for 61.54% of the winners.

Applying the 5-7 years of age trend to this year's field helps to whittle down the list of runners a little, with top weight Felix Desju and the in-form Molly Ollys Wishes amongst those who may be up against it.

11st – 11st10lb the Weight Window

Whilst low weights are perceived as a benefit in many handicap contests, that doesn’t seem to be the case here – all 14 of the previous 14 editions having been won by a runner saddled with between 11st and 11st10lb on the day. Overall, that trend falls into line with the theory that this race often goes to a runner capable of making their presence in graded company.

Other Factors

  • Look for runners arriving in form - Eight of the past ten winners had finished in the first three on their most recent outing.
  • Classy sorts go well - Nine of the past ten winners had previously run at Grade 3 level or above.
  • Irish Runners Have the Best Recent Record - Seven of the past ten editions have fallen to a horse hailing from an Irish yard.

Easy To Imagine Another Winner for Elliott

Having won the race with Champagne Classic in 2017 and Blow By Blow in 2018, Gordion Elliott knows what it takes to succeed here, and sends no fewer than six into battle this time around. Of that sextet, both Cool Survivor and Imagine look to be solid fits on the trends, with narrow preference for the latter. Having been campaigned predominantly over significantly shorter trips than this, there must be a fair chance that this five-year-old has something in hand from the handicapper now being stepped up in distance for the first time. At 11/2 with Fitzdares, he looks like a solid value bet for a trainer who has already been amongst the winners this week.


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