Premier League Run In: An xG Guide

With the frenetic festive period behind us, the 2024/25 Premier League edges ever closer to its conclusion. With 24 games in the bag, every side now has only 14 remaining fixtures to determine their fate.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look at the current state of play and how the sides have performed from an expected goals (xG) perspective. Finally, we combine the current table with the predicted xG points over the remaining games to create a final table. Will all of the sides end up where we expect? Or could we see a surprise or two?

The State of Play

Many punters expected that Liverpool would enjoy a solid campaign. Few predicted that the Reds would be seven points clear at this stage. They remain hot favourites to lift the title but can’t afford too many blips with a determined Arsenal on their tail.

The big shock of the season is found at the City Ground, where the Tricky Trees are flying under Nuno Espirito Santo. Expected to drop back almost throughout the season, they are now approaching the home straight in their improbable bid for Europe’s top table.

Elsewhere, the continuing plight of Manchester United has become less surprising with each passing week, but it is a shock to see neighbours City so far off the pace. Down at the bottom, it is as most expected, with the three promoted sides finding the quality of the Premier League a step too far.

xG Discrepancies

Premier League Expected Points Table

xG points use the Expected Goals performance of the sides to predict how many points a side SHOULD have earned given the overall quality of their attacking and defensive play. As we can see, Liverpool are exactly where they ought to be, i.e. sitting pretty at the top, seven points clear of their nearest pursuers, Arsenal.

However, the remaining members of the expected points top four are more surprising. According to xG, Bournemouth and Fulham have been the third and fourth-best sides in the division to date, highlighting the excellent work of Andoni Iraola and Marco Silva.

In line with the general consensus, Forest are the season's biggest overperformers, sitting six places higher than xG suggests they should. The two Manchester Clubs are broadly where they deserve to be, whilst there is no xG salvation for those occupying the bottom three positions.

Predicted Final Table

The above suggests some sides have performed better than their league position and others are flattered to sit so high in the table. The next question is whether there is enough time left for xG performance to make a tangible difference to the final league table.

To assess this, we will combine the points earned by each side at the 24-game stage with the predicted xG points over the remaining 14 games – creating the following final table.

Premier League Predicted Points Table

Rather than a nail-biting finale, xG suggests Liverpool will extend their lead and cruise to the title, with the Gunners taking second spot once again. Despite their relative overperformance, Forest already has enough points in the bag to claim a fantastic Champions League position, with Chelsea just holding off Bournemouth for fourth. No Champions League for City, Newcastle or Villa, whilst recent members of the Big 6, Manchester United and Spurs, languish in the bottom half of the table.

Betting Pointers

Given the ease with which Liverpool are predicted to win, odds of 2/7 for the title appear perfectly fair about Arne Slot’s men. However, that sort of price doesn’t really set the pulse racing. Those looking for a slightly more rewarding payout may wish to consider the following:

• Nottingham Forest to Finish in the Top 4 - 13/8 with PricedUp
• Bournemouth to Finish in the top 6 - Evs with PricedUp
• Newcastle United to Finish Outside the Top 6 - 7/4 (generally available)
• Man City to Finish Outside Top 4 - 11/8 (generally available)