Who Will Win the Sky Bet Handicap Chase?

The wonderful British weather has done its utmost to derail proceedings, but the National Hunt season continues on - heading towards its ultimate destination of the Cheltenham Festival. There is a firm focus on the March jamboree this coming weekend as Cheltenham plays host to its informative Trials Day meeting.

However, events at Prestbury Park aren’t the only racing show in town. One of the most intriguing betting handicaps comes at Doncaster, with the latest edition of the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (officially registered as the Great Yorkshire Chase), featuring as part of the live ITV offering.

Set to boast a big field, and looking as open as ever, the race presents a fascinating puzzle for punters to solve. Here we attempt to unravel the conundrum from a trends perspective, using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk.

Trainers with Previous Success

Of the 18 trainers set to be represented this year, just the four have recorded a previous win in the race. Brian Ellison is the most recent to have tasted success, having won the race in 2022, and sends defending champion Windsor Avenue into battle this time around. 2020 winner Nicky Henderson will be doubly represented should both Dusart and Mister Coffey Stand their ground, whilst champion trainer Paul Nicholls sends just the one in the shape of Simply The Betts.

Perhaps the man to look out for is Nigel Twiston-Davies. One more win for the Naunton based handler will take him level with the legendary Fred Rimell as the most successful trainer in the history of the race. Twiston-Davies has two entered at this stage – Good Boy Bobby and Undersupervision, who looks set to be ridden by his son Sam Twiston-Davies.

Age Trends

Quite a wide range of ages have come home in front, with the 12-year-old Takingrisks becoming the oldest winner in the history of the race in 2021. Interestingly, although only seven 10-year-olds have claimed top spot overall, four of those wins have come in the space of the past ten years. That is worth bearing in mind, but overall it is the eight and nine-year-olds who boast much the best record.

Weight Carried

Many handicaps in the calendar have a distinct trend in terms of the weight carried, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here, with a fairly even spread across most of the weight range. With 33 winners carrying 11st1lb or less, and 25 carrying 11st2lb or more, those in the bottom half of the weights have fared marginally better over time, but there isn’t all that much in it. Perhaps of more importance is the fact that seven of the past ten winners were running off a mark below their career high rating.

Other Factors

When looking at the past ten winners, the strongest trend in evidence is the fact that nine of the ten had previously won an official race over a trip of at least 3 miles. The only exception to this was last years winner, Windsor Avenue, but even he had won a 3m Point to Point. A proven ability to stay the distance seems to count for plenty in this.

All ten of the last ten winners had run within the last 63 days, and seven of ten had placed in the first six on their most recent outing. Also well worth noting is the fact that seven of the past ten winners had previously finished in the first three at this course. The three that did not fit this trend were having their first taste of the track.

Strong Case for Shanty Alley

Not the easiest of races in which to zero in on just the one runner, but there are three in particular which stand out at decent each way prices. The Venetia Williams trained duo of Farinet and Laskalin are a good fit on the trends and respected at 16/1 with Fitzdares. However, the horse to tick the most boxes is the nine year old Shanty Alley who goes for the Ben Case operation. A winner here in January of 2021, he is still 3lb below his career high mark despite running two excellent races to finish second in his two starts so far this season. Nicely weighted with only 10st2lb on his back, he looks solid each way value at 20/1 with LiveScoreBet.

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