September Stakes: Constitution Hill the Trends Buster?

Haydock stages the big Group 1 on Saturday afternoon, with the annual edition of the Sprint Cup. Excellent as that contest promises to be, I can’t help but be a little more intrigued by events at Kempton. The September Stakes may “only” be a Group 3 affair, but it features a bona fide racing megastar among the 2026 entries.

I am of course referring to the Nicky Henderson-trained Constitution Hill. Rocketing through the ranks with a sensational winning spree between 2021 and 2025, this sensational performer posted eight Grade 1 wins, including stellar displays in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle. Then the wheels came off in spectacular style, with three falls in four outings leaving connections and racing fans scratching their heads.

With his jumping ability in doubt, Henderson and owner Michael Buckley opted to remove hurdles from the equation by repurposing their pride and joy as a Flat performer. Seeing a horse make its Flat debut at the grand old age of nine is rare, but Constitution Hill is no ordinary horse. The question now is, how high can he climb? Having swept to success in Class 2 and Class 3 novice events, he returns from a five-month break for his first Group-class assignment.

Referring to the September Stakes as a “race he can’t win”, his trainer doesn’t appear overly optimistic, while the ratings suggest Constitution Hill has a mountain to climb. But what do the trends say?

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look back at the 20 editions of the September Stakes since the race transferred to an all-weather surface in 2006, picking out the key stats and trends and showing where Constitution Hill fits in.

Fate of the Favourite

40% is a solid winning percentage for the market leader, when compared with around 30% across all races. However, the prohibitively short prices of the winning jollies – most notably the wonderful Enable at 1/14 in 2020 – produced a loss of £4.99 to £1 level stakes. Hattan caused the biggest shock in our sample when coming home in front at 16/1 in 2008. Every other winner returned a single-figure SP.

Age of the Winner

The first, and perhaps the most obvious, factor against Constitution Hill is his age. At seven years of age, Yavana’s Pace (1999) and Prince Bishop (2014) are the oldest winners in the history of the race. At nine years old, Constitution Hill will need to smash that record if he is to come home in front.

Overall, 4 to 6 years of age appears to be the sweet spot, with 85% of the winners in our sample falling into that bracket. That trend doesn’t help too much in 2026, with only Constitution Hill and the 10-year-old Dubai Future falling outside the preferred age range.

Finishing Position Last Time Out

The results in our sample suggest a solid effort last time out is a minor positive, without being essential. 1st place was the most common last-time-out finishing position, but almost half of the September Stakes champs finished outside the first three on their previous racecourse appearances. Bay City Roller, Small Fry, and Constitution Hill are the last-time-out winners remaining in the 2026 field.

Rating of the Winner

Alongside his age, the biggest factor against Constitution Hill in the September Stakes is his current rating. After only two Flat starts, he has done well to reach a rating of 101. However, that is at least 3lb below each of the last 20 winners and 13lb below the average rating of the winner. Dual Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe queen Enable was the highest-class winner in our sample, having rocked up at Kempton with a 128 rating in 2018 and 2020.

Of the 14 runners remaining in the 2026 field, only Bay City Roller (124), Gethin (117), Tornado Alert (116), and Pride Of Arras (114) have a rating of 114 or higher.

Highest Grade of Previous Win

The joint-classiest Flat contest of the Kempton season is no stranger to a top-tier performer. Seven of the 20 winners in our sample had previously scored in Group 1 company, including Enable, Dubai World Cup winner Prince Bishop, and Irish Derby champ Jack Hobbs.

Having scored at no higher than Class 2 level on the Flat, this represents another trend for Constitution Hill to break. Of course, having won eight times in Grade 1 company over jumps, he is far from your usual Class 2 Flat horse.

Top Trainers

With four wins as a sole trainer and one in partnership with his son Thady, John Gosden is the most successful trainer in our sample. The Gosden team have a couple of interesting outsiders among the current entries in the shape of Lion’s Pride and Warrant Holder.

Sir Michael Stoute has now retired, but Saeed bin Suroor is set to be represented by Tornado Alert, who will have the assistance of champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle. Of the other names on the list, Andrew Balding (Almeric) and Ralph Beckett (Pride Of Arras) are also represented.

Other Factors

Betting Selections: Side With Pride

Constitution Hill hits only one of our key trends. However, as a horse who has primarily competed in the National Hunt sphere, he was never likely to be a good trends fit for this race. I’d still love to see him win.

However, sticking to a trends-based punting system, the Ralph Beckett-trained Pride Of Arras is the one to be on. The only horse to hit all five key trends, he finished a fine second to Item in the York Stakes last time and should appreciate this step back up in trip.

• Recommended Bet - Pride Of Arras to win @ 9/2 with Spreadex, PricedUp, Bet Goodwin, QuinnBet, Bet Ahoy, and Bet Tom