Premier League: Squad Value and Expected Goals Predictions

The wait is almost over. While the FIFA World Cup kept us entertained over the summer, there’s nothing quite like the start of a new Premier League season to get the betting juices flowing. While looking forward to betting on the individual games, I will kick things off with a selection of long-term bets for the season ahead.

Continuing the methodology that correctly predicted the Premier League 1-2 for the 2025/26 season, I will use the squad values of the 20 Premier League clubs to identify discrepancies in the betting odds. Next, I will take a look at the actual performance of the sides according to Expected Goals in 2025/26. Did the xG performance align with finishing positions?

Read on for analysis of the data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, and my best long-term bets for the 2026/27 season.

Squad Value Analysis

Squad Value Premier League Winner

The rich get richer in the Premier League, and with the rules as they are, there’s not much the likes of Aston Villa and Newcastle can do about it. Heading into the season as the most settled side in the league, and bolstered by the signings of Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis, defending champions Arsenal have the most valuable squad and duly top the outright winner market. Odds-against quotes for the Gunners are worth taking in a season in which so many of their rivals are in transition.

• Recommended Bet - Arsenal to win the Premier League @ 13/10 with PricedUp

Squad Value Top 2 Finish

2025/26 runners-up Manchester City sit second in terms of squad value and in the betting market. However, with the departure of Pep Guardiola and midfield colossus Rodri, there is more uncertainty than usual surrounding the Cityzens.

The most notable outlier in the top 4 is Chelsea. The Blues are joint-second on squad value, but only fourth in the betting market. Could this be the season when everything clicks at Stamford Bridge? Things may not have worked out for Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid, but the ex-Liverpool man worked wonders at Bayer Leverkusen and knows the Premier League well. He has been well supported in the transfer market with a host of new arrivals headlined by £117m man Morgan Rogers. Backing Chelsea to finish in the top 2 and pairing them with Arsenal in a straight forecast are the suggested bets.

While not in the same order, the squad value top 6 agrees with the betting order. With Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool, and Man Utd all odds-on for a top 6 finish, there are no standout bets in this market.

• Recommended Bet - Chelsea to finish in the Top 2 @ 7/2 with VirginBet
• Recommended Bet - Arsenal – Chelsea Straight Forecast @ 16/1 with QuinnBet

Squad Value Relegation

As is almost always the case, the squad value table predicts that the three promoted clubs will make an immediate return to the Championship. While not the most imaginative of punts, the 13/4 available with QuinnBet for all three clubs to go down represents fair value.

• Recommended Bet - All 3 Promoted Teams to be Relegated @ 13/4 with QuinnBet

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The xG table suggests there was no fluke at the top last season, with the top three finishers ending up exactly where xG said they should. The season's big overperformers were Aston Villa and Sunderland. Villa surprisingly finished nine places above where xG suggested they should, while Sunderland were fully 11 spots above their xG position.

The most obvious bet to take from this is Aston Villa to finish in the bottom half. Shorn of key men Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers, and with the added demands of Champions League football, even the outstanding Unai Emery may struggle to match last season’s efforts.

According to the xG numbers, Sunderland played at the standard of a bottom-three club last season. With the Black Cats struggling in the transfer market, second-season syndrome may strike at the Stadium of Light.

The two biggest underperformers were the London clubs of Chelsea and Crystal Palace. It is tempting to back Palace for a top-half finish, but the departure of Oliver Glasner for Nottingham Forest tempers enthusiasm.

For a final punt, take a chance on Brighton to finish in the top six. Seventh in the squad value table, the Seagulls performed at the level of a top six club last season. More stable than most in the league, they are an appealing proposition to crack the top 6 at odds against.

• Recommended Bet - Aston Villa to Finish in the Bottom Half @ 3/1 with BetMGM
• Recommended Bet - Sunderland to be Relegated @ 7/2 with PricedUp
• Recommended Bet - Brighton to Finish in the Top 6 @ 7/2 with BetAhoy