Kempton Christmas Festival: Stats and Trends

It may be the holiday season for most of us, but those involved in the horse racing game have little opportunity to rest, with the festive period representing one of the busiest times of the year. As ever, the big highlight comes at Kempton Park, as the Sunbury-on-Thames venue hosts the always excellent Christmas Festival.

Kicking off on Boxing Day, the two-day fixture serves up 12 cracking contests for our punting pleasure. Here, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk we look back at the past ten years of results for the five events rated at Grade 2 level or above, in an effort to unearth a punting pointer or two.

Boxing Day 1:20 pm – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase

First up, a field of the most promising novice chasers in training does battle over the 3m trip. The pick of the winners in the past decade were Coneygree (2014), who went on to Cheltenham Gold Cup Glory, and Bravemansgame (2021), who returned to land the King George in 2022. The now-retired Colin Tizzard and Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls are the only trainers to land the prize more than once over this period, having recorded two wins apiece.

Key Trends

• 8 of 10 winners had previously won over 3m or further -
• 8 of 10 winners were either 6 or 7 years of age -
• 8 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times in the current season -
• Only 1 winning favourite over this period -
• 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on their most recent start -

Boxing Day 1:55 pm – Christmas Hurdle

The second Grade 1 of the meeting sees a crack field of 2m hurdlers lock horns in one of the key events of its type over the first half of the season. Faugheen, Buveur D’Air, Epatante, and Constitution Hill all feature on the recent roll of honour – indicating the class of performer it often takes to prevail.

Key Trends

• Nicky Henderson has won 6 of the past 10 editions -
• 7 of the past 10 favourites came home in front -
• 10 of 10 winners were between 5 and 7 years of age -
• 8 of 10 winners had run only once in the current season -
• 10 of 10 had finished in the first 2 on their most recent start -
• 6 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle or Coral Hurdle on their previous outing -

Boxing Day 2:30 pm – King George VI Steeple Chase

The centrepiece of the Boxing Day card and the headline act of the meeting is one of the most historic and prestigious staying chases of the season. Desert Orchid, Kauto Star, and Arkle have all etched their way into racing folklore, and all were winners of this captivating contest.

Key Trends

• Paul Nicholls has won 6 of the past 10 editions -
• 8 or 10 winners were 7 or 8 years of age -
• 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their most recent start -
• 9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice in the current season -
• 8 of 10 winners had previously won over 3m or further -
• 9 of 10 winners already had a Grade 1 win to their name -

December 27th 2:30 pm – Wayward Lad Novices’ Steeple Chase

Kicking off the Grade 2 action on Day 2 is this 2m event named in honour of the legendary three-time King George VI Chase winner, Wayward Lad. Several winners of this have subsequently gone on to Queen Mother Champion Chase glory, including Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets, and Altior.

Key Trends

• 6 of the past 10 editions were won by either Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson -
• 6 of the past 10 winners lined up in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown on their previous start -
• 9 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times in the current season -
• 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their most recent start -
• 10 of 10 winners were between 5 and 7 years of age -
• 8 of 10 winners previously won at Grade 2 level or above -

December 27th 2:30pm – Desert Orchid Handicap Steeple Chase

If ever a horse deserved to have an event named in his honour, it is surely racing’s most famous grey. “Dessie” is duly recognised in this Grade 2 affair, which will be run as a Limited handicap for the first time in 2023. Despite that tweak with the conditions, a race won by Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, and Shiskin is, as ever, expected to attract a high-class field.

Key Trends

• 10 of 10 winners were between 6 and 9 years of age -
• 7 of 10 winners had previously won in Grade 1 company -
• 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their most recent start -
• 8 of 10 had run only once in the current season or were making their seasonal return -
• 7 of 10 editions fell to Nicky Henderson, Henry De Bromhead, or Gary Moore -
• Nico de Boinville is the leading rider over this period with 3 wins -
• 5 of 10 winners had appeared in the Tingle Creek Chase or Shloer Chase on their most recent outing -

You might also be interested in:

• Welsh Grand National – 10 Year Tends
• King George VI Chase – Trends and Stats
• King George VI Chase – Ten Year Trends