Welsh Grand National – 10 Year Tends

With the present unwrapping and binge eating out of the way for another year, the post-Christmas period allows sports fans to settle in for another feast – this time in the shape of a copious amount of sporting action. The Darts at the Ally Pally will be well underway, whilst the Premier League keeps football fans entertained with an overload of fixtures. On the racing front, we have the spectacular King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. That Grade 1 affair may hog the headlines, but just one day later, the biggest event of the Welsh year takes to the stage, as Chepstow plays host to the huge betting heat of the Welsh Grand National.

A stamina-sapping 3m6f is the trip, with 27 fences standing between the field and a slice of the £150,000 in prize money. Here, we look back at the past ten editions of the race using data presented by newbettingsites.uk in an effort to narrow down the list of 42 current entries.

Welsh Grand National: Age of Winner

Not the strongest of trends in evidence here, although siding with runners between six and eight years of age may tilt the odds in our favour - with 60% of winners falling into that bracket. Looking further back in time, the overall stats suggest that we should extend this window slightly to bring in the 10-year-olds, who have won 14 of 68 editions across the entire history of the race. Only four horses older than ten have won the race, but both came within the last decade, including the oldest-ever winner, Raz De Maree, in 2017.

Welsh Grand National: Weight Carried by Winner

The weight trends appear far more encouraging, with the past ten years showing a strong bias towards contenders carrying a lower weight. An impressive 80% of winners shouldered 10st10lb or less. Two winners had the bare minimum of 10st - as many as all weights at 10st11lb and above. A lighter burden in this gruelling race would appear to be a distinct advantage.

Finishing Position Last Time Out

The stats suggest we should favour those runners who arrive at Chepstow in good form. A solid 50% of winners had won on their most recent racecourse appearance, whilst 80% had at least managed to finish in the first three positions. Bouncing back from a subpar effort would appear difficult in such a competitive contest.

Number of Runs in Current Season

Asking a chaser to be fit and ready to land this on their seasonal return is a pretty tall order. It is not too surprising that none of the past ten winners were winning this first time out. All ten had between 1 and 3 previous starts under their belts, with 2 appearing to be the magic number – 60% of winners falling into that category.

Top Trainers and Jockeys

This hasn’t been the strongest of races for fans of trainer and jockey trends. Over the past ten years, two-time winner Colin Tizzard is the only trainer to have landed the prize on more than one occasion. Colin is now retired, but son Joe will hope to continue the family’s association with the great race. Having each won the race twice in the more distant past, runners from the yards of Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill, and Venetia Williams may also be worth a second look. There is very little to work with on the jockey front, with the past ten editions falling to ten different riders

Fate of the Favourite

For such a competitive event, the favourite boasts a solid recent record in this, with three of the past ten editions falling to the market leader. A £1 level stakes punt on the jolly over this period would have returned a profit of £1.25. Overall, seven of 10 winners returned a single-figure SP, with the biggest shock coming courtesy of the 20/1 success of Mountainous in 2013.

Other Factors

• All 10 winners had run within the last 35 days -
• 6 of 10 had previously won at Chepstow -
• 9 or 10 had previously won over at least 3m – the only exception being Secreet Repreive, who won over 2m7½f on his previous start -
• Stallions Flemensfirth and Milan each sired two winners over this preiod -
• The London National at Sandown and the official Welsh Grand National Trial at this track were the most informative prep races – producing two winners apiece -

A Shortlist of Two

Applying the strongest of the trend, i.e., those regarding the weight carried, previous win over at least 2m7½f, a run within 35 days, and a top 3 finish on their most recent outing, reduces the current field of 42 down to just 3 – Wayfinder, Super Survivor, and Autonomous Cloud.

Wayfinder is a big price at around the 50/1 mark for such a good fit on the trends but was pulled up in the 2022 edition when he failed to stay. As such, our two against the field are course winner Super Survivor, who ran a nice prep when staying on for second at Lingfield, and Autonomous Cloud, who is yet to finish outside the first two in five starts at 2m7f+. Super Survivor can be backed at 7/1 with LiveScoreBet, whilst Autonomous Cloud looks like a solid each-way investment at 16/1 with BetGoodwin.

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