King George VI Chase – Trends and Stats

Christmas presents, time with family and friends, and more food and drink than is advisable are all well and good, but one of the real highlights of the festive period is the overload of sporting and betting action. A full Premier League fixture list keeps football fans entertained, whilst, on the racing front, Boxing Day provides one of the standout staying chases of the season as the runners and riders line up for the historic King George VI Chase at Kempton.

Here we take a look at the 21st Century winners of the great race, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk in an effort to narrow down the 16-runner field.

21st Century Top Trainers

Few Grade 1 contests have been dominated to quite the extent as this one, with the 11 wins of Paul Nicholls in the current century being only one fewer than all other trainers combined. Having also won the race with See More Business in 1997 and 1999, the multiple Champion Trainer is way out on his own as the most successful trainer in the history of the race. Nicholls is responsible for three of the current entries, in the shape of 2020 winner Frodon, the highly regarded Pic D’Orhy, and defending champion Bravemansgame.

Of the other trainers to have recently shown they have what it takes, Nicky Henderson has Shishkin entered, and Allaho and Gold Cup king Gallopin Des Champs are possibles of Willie Mullins. Venetia Williams won with Teeton Mill in 1998 and sends Royal Pagaille into battle this time around.

Age Stats

Seven to eight-year-olds boast the best record in recent years, with 14 of the past 23 winners (60.80%) falling into the bracket. Extending the range to six to nine years of age accounts for 21 of 23 winners (91.30%). Edredon Bleu (2003) and the legendary Kauto Star, when winning the race for the fifth time in 2011, are the two outliers. Unfortunately, this pattern doesn’t help us much this year, with the eleven-year-old Frodon being the only runner to fall outside the 6-9 bracket.

Previous Runs in Current Season

At least one tune-up run has proved essential in this race, with every 21st-century winner having already run at least once in the current season. Just one outing to blow away the cobwebs appears to be the optimal approach. Overall, 17 of 23 winners (73.91%) were making their second or third start of the season.

Finishing Position Last Time Out

Looking at the finishing positions of the winners on their previous start reveals a strong trend, with 16 of 23 (69.57%) arriving at Kempton on the back of a win. 20 of 23 (86.96%) had at least finished inside the first three on their most recent outing, whilst all bar Kauto Star – who unseated before his 2008 success – had finished in the first five.

Fate of the Favourites

The King George has been a punter-friendly race in the 21st century, with the market leader coming home in front in 11 of the past 23 editions – representing a 47.82% strike rate, which compares favourably to the near 30% strike rate of favourites across all races. There have been a few pretty short prices amongst those winning favourites, but a £1 level stakes bet on the jolly would still have eked out a profit of £2.91. Overall, 19 of 23 winners returned a single-figure SP, with the biggest shock coming in 2021 when the unheralded Tornado Flyer stormed to victory at 28/1.

Proven Stamina a Plus, and Previous Winners Worth a Look

Given Kempton’s relatively easy track, the King George isn’t quite so gruelling as other Grade 1 Staying Chases on the calendar – most notably the Cheltenham Gold Cup – but a proven ability to see out the 3m trip is undoubtedly a positive. Of the last 23 winners, 18 had previously won over at least 3m. It is also worth noting that 8 of the past 23 editions were won by a horse with at least one King George success already on their CV.

A Shortlist of Three

Applying all of the above to the current list of runners – focussing on horses between six and nine years of age, who will be making their second or third start of the season, won on their most recent outing, and have previously scored over at least 3m – creates a shortlist of just three stats-favoured contenders.

Gordon Elliott’s Gerri Colombe, Allaho from the yard of Willie Mullins, and the Venetia Williams-trained Royal Pagaille are the three to make the cut. It’s hard to knock Gerri Colombe, but he may just be undone by this speed-favouring track, whilst, at double-figure odds, recent Betfair Chase winner Royal Pagaille makes plenty of each-way appeal. However, it is Allaho who gets our vote at this stage. A dual Ryanair Chase winner who likes to get on with things out in front, he may prove tough to peg back and rates a decent bet at around the 5/1 mark.

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