Best Bets This Weekend: World Cup, Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby Tips

In any normal year, the racing would take centre stage this coming weekend, with excellent action from both sides of the Irish Sea. Saturday sees the north-east track of Newcastle take its turn in the spotlight with the 2026 edition of the Northumberland Plate, affectionately known as the Pitmen’s Derby. On Sunday afternoon, we have a very real Derby, as the cream of the three-year-old colts head to the Curragh for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.

Of course, this isn’t a normal year, with events out in North America casting a rather large shadow over the rest of the sporting world. So far, (just about) so good for England, who face Panama in their final Group L fixture on Saturday evening. Then, with little time to draw breath, it’s straight into the knockout phase, with the first of the Last 32 fixtures kicking off on Sunday evening.

Looking for the best bets this weekend? Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our top picks from Newcastle, County Kildare, New York, and Los Angeles.

Northumberland Plate – Saturday 3:15pm

First stop Newcastle, for this £150,000 staying handicap. We have a significant gamble underway ahead of the 2026 Northumberland Plate, with the Richard Hughes-trained Circus Of Rome backed from an opening show of 20/1 all the way down to 3/1. That money may prove telling, but the cat is well and truly out of the bag about this one. Taking a short price in a big field handicap such as this isn’t really our style, particularly as the horse is sired by a 1m star and has yet to race beyond 1m6f.

Ride The Thunder boasts a similar profile to the favourite and finished a solid third on his seasonal return over 1m5f at Hamilton. He makes some appeal at around the 8/1 mark, but that is again a little short about a horse yet to tackle the trip or race on an all-weather surface.

With many firms offering 1/5 odds for the 1-2-3-4-5, we prefer to take a chance on one at a big price. The horse to get the vote is the Ralph Beckett-trained five-year-old Moon Over Miami, who looks a little overpriced at 14/1 with BetAhoy and others.

Relatively lightly raced, Moon Over Miami will be making only his tenth career start here and may be open to improvement. We loved his attitude when scoring over this trip at Newbury in 2025, and he gets in off the same mark of 90 here. He’s yet to win on the all-weather but went down by just 1¾l in a staying handicap at Kempton when running off 91. Following two quiet runs to start 2026, his fourth at Goodwood last time was a step in the right direction, suggesting he may be ready to peak on the big day. Defending champ Spirit Mixer did this column a favour when landing the 2025 edition at 25/1 and is second choice.

• Recommended Bet - Moon Over Miami each way @ 14/1 with BetAhoy

Panama v England – 10pm Saturday

England sit top of Group L after two games but haven’t won over all of the doubters. Looking vulnerable in the first half against Croatia, they turned in a much more polished performance after the break, looking like a real threat going forward. However, while effective in an open game, that attacking impetus ran aground against the brick wall of Ghana on Tuesday evening.

A well-organised Panama are perfectly capable of curling up into a deep block, but it really isn’t in their interest to do so. Pointless after two games, despite playing well in patches, only a win, and probably a comfortable one at that, will give them any chance. As Croatia found out, attacking an England side which is very effective at exploiting space is a dangerous business. The set-up of this game suits the Three Lions well, and they can ensure they top the Group in an entertaining encounter.

• Recommended Bet - England to Win and over 4.5 goals @ 5/2 with QuinnBet

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby – 4:35pm Sunday

It’s hard to move for O’Brien-trained runners in the Sunday afternoon feature from the Curragh. Already the most successful trainer in Irish Derby history, Aidan O’Brien is responsible for five of the remaining 11 entries. Add in two Donnacha O’Brien entries and one from the yard of Joseph O’Brien, and the O’Brien clan have eight of the 11 runners between them.

Of the O’Brien runners, the three most obvious contenders are the Aidan O’Brien duo of Christmas Day and Benvenuto Cellini, and Joseph O’Brien’s James J Braddock.

Christmas Day can be backed at 6/1, which is a little big for the Epsom Derby champ. However, this stamina-laden sort faces vastly different ground conditions here.

Just as he did at Epsom, Benvenuto Cellini seems likely to start favourite. Ultimately crossing the line in tenth, he was bizarrely declared a non-runner, having been unprepared at the start. That tardy start and the soft ground are feasible excuses, but we aren’t in a rush to take 6/4 about a horse who finished fully 28 lengths adrift of the winner.

Epsom third James J Braddock should go well, but this can go to Britain. The one to be on is the impeccably bred Raaheeb from the Owen Burrows operation. By Sea The Stars and out of the mare Aghareed, this Shadwell runner is a full brother to Group 1 winner Hukum and the superstar Baaeed. While he has a way to go to match the exploits of his siblings, he has done nothing to suggest he won’t follow in their hoofprints. A perfect two from two to date, he won the bet365 Classic Trial in fine style and can take the step up to Group 1 company in his stride. The 5/1 available earlier in the week has been gobbled up, but he still represents fair value at 7/2 with BetMGM.

• Recommended Bet - Raaheeb to win @ 7/2 with BetMGM

South Africa v Canada – 8pm Sunday

With the Group Phase ending with the 3am games on Sunday morning, the real business of the knockout stages begins at 8pm later that evening. First up, co-hosts Canada have been rewarded for their second-place finish in Group B with this clash with Group A runners up South Africa.

South Africa have done remarkably well to make it this far, despite producing one of the most abject performances of the first round of fixtures when losing 2-0 to Mexico. In hindsight, it probably wasn’t too surprising to see the side swept away at altitude by the hosts. Since then, they have been very solid at the back, conceding only three shots on target against Czechia and South Korea. Barring a goal blitz against nine-man Qatar, Canada haven’t impressed with their cutting edge – the Maple Leafs were notably wasteful in a 2-1 loss to Switzerland. With South Africa likely to be organised and hard to break down, this one may go beyond ninety minutes.

• Recommended Bet - Draw @ 13/5 with BetAhoy