FIFA World Cup: Squad Value and FIFA World Ranking Analysis of the Group Stage

The four-year wait is almost over as the world takes a seat in readiness for the 2026 edition of the FIFA World Cup. With 48 nations heading to North America, this is officially the biggest World Cup to date, with a whopping 104 games crammed into around five weeks of action. Football heaven for lovers of the beautiful game.

The scale of this year's World Cup will be most apparent in a bloated Group Stage, with two-thirds of the sides progressing to the knockout rounds. Overall, it looks pretty difficult for any of the fancied nations not to escape their section, which does seem to remove a little bit of jeopardy. Of course, we may be wrong, and the Group Stage may turn out to be a thriller, but regardless. Either way, the opening phase remains rife with betting opportunities.

Here, we pick out our best bet in all twelve sections, using the FIFA World Rankings, estimated squad values taken from transfermrkt.co.uk, and analysis presented by NewBettingSites.uk. Odds quoted in tables are representative of the prices available at the time of writing.

Group A

Not too much disparity in Group A, with the betting odds mirroring the FIFA World Rankings. The only apparent angle here is via the squad values, where Czechia are only just over €3.5m behind Mexico. Playing all of their games at altitude and with fervent home support, Mexico can take top spot, but Czechia may do enough to pip a South Korea side that has appeared tactically uncertain in recent games.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Mexico, 2. Czechia @ 3/1 with BetMGM

Group B

In Group B, the betting order matches the squad value, but despite having the lowest squad value in the competition, Qatar are actually ranked higher than Bosnia & Herzegovina in the FIFA World Rankings. Switzerland/Canada looks solid in the straight forecast, but with Canada having home advantage on their side, the reverse forecast feels like the safer option.

• Recommended Bet - Reverse Forecast: Switzerland & Canada @ 8/13 with Spreadex

Group C

A Group of two distinct halves, with Brazil and Morocco well clear of both Scotland and Haiti in terms of squad value and FIFA World Rankings. If Scotland beat Haiti, they have a chance of making the knockout round, but facing two top ten sides more accustomed to this sort of climate looks like a tall order. Brazil/Morocco is the obvious call, but the odds discrepancy looks too great considering the small gap in rankings. Take a chance on Morocco, which reached the semi-finals in 2022, taking top spot.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Morocco, 2. Brazil @ 7/1 with BetMGM

Group D

We have a conflict between the FIFA World Rankings and squad value in Group D. USA edges the rankings, but Turkey comes out on top in squad value. Paraguay and Australia show a similar pattern in third and fourth spots. With little to split the USA and Turkey, and the pair well clear of their rivals, odds against for the reverse forecast look perfectly fair.

• Recommended Bet - Reverse Forecast: USA & Turkey @ 6/4 with Spreadex

Group E

If the climate is to play a significant role, Germany have landed in a nightmare section. However, the rankings and squad values suggest they should have more than enough to take top spot. Deprived of the altitude advantage of their Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado home, Ecuador may struggle to make their rankings edge count against a Senegal outfit with a significantly higher squad value.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Germany, 2. Ivory Coast @ 9/4 with Spreadex

Group F

On FIFA World Rankings and squad value, the Netherlands are the class act in Group F but face two tricky opponents in all-action Japan and a talented Swedish outfit. The Netherlands should take top spot. On the grounds that Sweden’s ranking may not yet account for the improvements made under Graham Potter, we will take their fellow Europeans to grab second.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Netherlands, 2. Sweden @ 7/2 with BetMGM

Group G

Belgium really ought to have too much for their Group G rivals. The FIFA World Rankings suggest Iran are next best, despite having the lowest squad value in the section. At the prices, it may just be worth trusting those Rankings. Take Iran, who arrive fresher than most, following a curtailed domestic season, to edge out Egypt for second spot.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Belgium, 2. Iran @ 13/5 with Spreadex

Group H

Another section with a stark separation between the top two sides and the bottom two. There may be some value in backing Cape Verde to qualify, but we will keep this simple with what appears to be one of the more obvious straight forecasts in the Group phase.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Spain, 2. Uruguay @ 4/5 with QuinnBet

Group I

Whether there is a true Group of Death in a competition where the top three are likely to qualify is debatable, but Group I has been handed that accolade in 2026. One of the pre-tournament favourites with an abundance of attacking weapons, it’s hard to see past France for top spot. However, Senegal’s advantage in the rankings is greater than that of Norway in the squad value, and the African side can take second spot.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. France, 2. Senegal @ 11/4 with BetMGM

Group J

Defending champions Argentina are red-hot favourites to top Group J, are well clear on all measures and should get the job done. It is then a toss-up between Austria and Algeria for second. The rankings say Austria, while the squad value favours the Desert Warriors. With so little in it, the value lies with Algeria.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Argentina, 2. Algeria @ 13/5 with Spreadex

Group K

No discrepancies in Group K, with the betting order matching both the squad value and FIFA World Rankings. Boasting a squad value over three times that of Colombia and with players peppering the best league in the world, Portugal are big contenders this year and can take top spot. Colombia have a similar edge over DR Congo and Uzbekistan and should qualify with ease.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. Portugal, 2. Colombia @ 11/10 with Spreadex

Group L

Saving the most anticipated Group on these shores until last, England’s road to the final begins in Group L. Croatia’s experience does present a challenge, but the Three Lions are worthy favourites as the fourth-best side in the rankings, with the second most valuable squad in the competition. Having reached the semi-finals in the past two tournaments, Croatia should outclass a Ghana outfit under a new manager and an overmatched Panama side. Don’t be surprised to see a physical Panama side take third spot, but it’s hard to look beyond the European sides for the top two places.

• Recommended Bet - Straight Forecast: 1. England, 2. Croatia @ 5/4 with Spreadex