Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Ten-Year Trends and Best Bets

Only four weeks to go. The countdown is now well and truly on for the biggest and best event of the National Hunt season. We are, of course, referring to the mighty Cheltenham Festival, which this year rolls onto the Prestbury Park turf on Tuesday, 10 March.

This four-day feast of action is crammed with highlights, with the signature events of the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, Stayers’ Hurdle, and Cheltenham Gold Cup generating much of the hype in the weeks leading up to the race. However, one of the meeting's most iconic moments comes with the roar which greets the start of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Cheers rain down from the packed grandstands to greet the start of race one on Day One, but who will be celebrating at the end of the 2m½f contest?

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look at the ten-year trends for this cracking contest. Having examined the ten results of the race between 2016 and 2025, we pick out our best bets for 2026 as we look to strike early at this punting marathon.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Age of Winner

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is open to runners aged four and older, but none so young have come home in front since future Champion Hurdle hero Hors La Loi III in 1999. At the other end of the scale, Beau Caprice remarkably won as a 12-year-old in 1966. However, that was very much an outlier. Since 1989, the only horse older than seven to land the prize was the eight-year-old Like A Butterfly in 2002. Looking at our 10-year sample, five- to six-year-olds have dominated, with six-year-olds faring the best of all. Focusing on those aged five or six in 2026 reduces the current list of entries from 45 to 40.

Finishing Position Last Time Out

In a race which attracts the cream of the novice hurdlers from both sides of the Irish Sea, it makes sense that horses who ran well on their most recent appearance may hold the edge. That theory is borne out by the results in our sample, with eight of the ten winners arriving on the back of a victory. The most glaring outlier is the 2017 winner Labaik, who had refused to race twice and been beaten by over 100 lengths in his three previous appearances….

Focussing on the last time out winners reduces our list of trends contenders to 18.

Grade 1 Experience a Solid Pointer

Recent results suggest that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner most often has a Grade 1 outing under their belt before rocking up at Cheltenham for the big one. The only exception in our sample was the 2020 winner, Shiskin, who had raced at no higher than Listed level.

Drawing a line through those runners who are yet to race at the highest level leaves us with the following shortlist of five.

• El Cairos
• Idaho Sun
• Skylight Hustle
• Talk The Talk
• Too Bossy For Us

Top Trainers

With eight wins in total, Willie Mullins is the most successful trainer in the history of the race. He is joined at the top of our ten-year table by Nicky Henderson, who will be aiming for a sixth win in total in 2026.

When looking at our remaining five contenders, Too Bossy For Us is the only remaining Mullins runner, while Gordon Elliott is represented by El Cairos and Skylight Hustle. Nicky Henderson is responsible for the four-timer seeking market leader Old Park Star, who fell down on our trends due to the lack of a Grade 1 outing. However, that didn’t stop the Henderson-trained Shiskin coming home in front in 2020.

Key Trials

Formerly known as the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle was the most informative contest in our sample. Three of the ten winners won that Leopardstown event on their previous appearance, while Slade Steel finished second in the Irish contest before going one better at Cheltenham in 2024. The Tolworth Novices Hurdle at Sandown was the key domestic trial.

Of our five remaining entries, Joseph O’Brien’s Talk The Talk is this year’s Tattersalls Novice Hurdle winner. This season's Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (now known as the Formby Novices’ Hurdle and run at Aintree) winner has also made it this far, in the shape of the Harry Fry-trained Idaho Sun.

Fate of the Favourite

Three of the ten editions in our sample were won by the favourite or joint favourite, handing supporters of the market leader a loss of £4.98 to £1 level stakes. Unsurprisingly, the tough-to-pick Labaik caused the biggest shock when coming home in front at odds of 25/1 in 2017.

Best Bets: Trial Winners to the Fore

Given his record in the race, it is tempting to simply side with the only Willie Mullins runner to make it through our race filters. However, Too Bossy For Us is some way down the Closutton pecking order. Having been beaten by a combined 44½l in his two previous outings in Grade 1 company, we will look elsewhere.

Our main selection for the race is Joseph O’Brien’s Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle winner Talk The Talk. But for falling with the race at his mercy at Leopardstown in December, this Simon Munir & Isaac Souede runner would be a perfect four from four over hurdles. While only scoring by a short head in his prep race, we loved the way he came from off the pace and can envisage him relishing the additional stamina demands of the Cheltenham hill.

The standout each way option is Harry Fry’s Idaho Sun. An eye-catching sixth in the 2025 Champion Bumper, this son of the Group class flat star, Idaho, has taken to hurdles like a duck to water. Following two effortless wins at Fontwell and Bangor, he took the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride when bursting the bubble of the highly regarded Mydaddypaddy at Aintree.

• Recommended Bet - Talk The Talk to win @ 4/1 with BetTom
• Recommended Bet - Idaho Sun each way @ 14/1 with BetTom