Something for the Weekend: Best Racing and Football Bets

As September comes to an end, and October begins, the sporting calendar continues apace. We have no shortage of entertainment on offer this coming weekend, and here we turn our attention to the latest round of Premier League fixtures and the latest highlights of the late flat racing campaign.

Using data presented by newbettingsites.co.uk, we pick out our best bets in the big Saturday evening fixture from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Sunday’s showdown at the City Ground, the Cambridgeshire Handicap, and what looks like a sizzling edition of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Saturday: Newmarket 3:40pm bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap

No fewer than 35 runners go to post in one of the biggest handicaps of the season. On the downside, that makes this a tricky puzzle to solve, but on the plus side, many firms are paying each way on the first seven places. That concession makes this an attractive contest for an each-way punt, and happily, we have a few trends in evidence to help whittle down the list of contenders.

Firstly, each of the past seven winners of this has emerged from stall 21 or above. Secondly, nine of the last ten to come in front have been five or younger. And, finally, nine of the last ten victors were saddled with 9st5lb or less on the day. Of those to fit the bill, current favourite Greek Order is the first port of call, with the son of Kingman heading into the race seeking a hattrick. However, taking odds of around 9/2 in a race where luck in running can play a significant role makes limited appeal. We prefer to look a little further down the list for an each-way contender, and the one to catch our eye is the 2022 winner Majestic. Handed a plum draw in stall 29, he’s 3lb higher than 12 months ago but looked value for more than the 1¼l winning margin that day and hinted at a return to form when a decent fourth at Chepstow last time out.

• Best Bet - Majestic each way @ 20/1 with LiveScoreBet

Saturday: 5:30pm Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool

This clash at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium promises to produce a Saturday teatime sizzler. To varying degrees, Spurs and Liverpool endured frustrating campaigns last season, but both have started with a bang this time around. Sitting fourth and second in the table, separated by just 2 points, Ange Postecoglou’s men will be looking to leapfrog their visitors with a win in this one, but can they do it?

Whilst the Premier League season is still young, the xG stats of the two sides are still worth looking at. So far at home, Spurs are averaging a solid 2.35 xG for and 1.62 xG against. The early signs are that Postecoglou-ball is functioning well. Liverpool's away figures stand at 1.66 xG for and 1.36 xG against. Those figures suggest an average expectation of 1.86 goals for Spurs and 1.64 for Liverpool. This could go either way, but Liverpool look to be improving as their overhauled midfield settles into gear, and those xG stats are held back a little by the fact that they were forced to defend for much of the game when down to ten men at Newcastle (yet still managed to win). Take the Reds to pick up the points in an entertaining encounter.

• Best Bet - Liverpool to win and over 3.5 goals @ 3/1 with LiveScoreBet

Sunday: 2pm Nottingham Forest vs Brentford

Slightly lower-key fare for the Sunday afternoon fixture, but this is still a big one for fans of the Bees and the Tricky Trees. Sitting on 7 and 6 points respectively, the two sides have begun the season in similar fashion and will be looking to head in the right direction with a positive result in front of the TV cameras. The sides split the points in a 2-2 draw in this game last season, with the reverse fixture seeing Thomas Frank’s men pick up the points courtesy of a 2-1 success.

Returning to the xG figures in this one, Forest are averaging 1.04 xG for and 0.68 xG against in their two home games against Sheffield United and Burnley. Solid, but pretty unimpressive stats against two sides expected to be involved in the relegation battle. Brentford have averaged 2.05 xG for and 0.95 xG against in their two away games at Fulham and Newcastle. The bare numbers suggest 1 goal for the home team and 1.37 for the visitors, but we are happy to upgrade Brentford’s figures, and having been impressive for large spells at St. James’s Park, they ought to find this an easier assignment.

• Best Bet - Brentford to win @ 33/20 with BetUK

Sunday: Longchamp 3:05pm Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

As ever, we have an international cast of stars assembling for what is just about the most prestigious 1m4f event on the planet, with a whopping £4,424,779 in total prize money on offer. Ace Impact leads the charge for the home team. Arriving with a perfect record of 5 wins from as many starts, he duly heads the betting at around 3/1. It’s hard to find holes in his form, but he does step up to this trip for the first time, which provides enough of a question mark for us to look elsewhere.

Through Seven Seas goes for Japan, and rates amongst the more appealing each-way options at 16/1, with her narrow second to the sensational Equinox reading well in the context of this. However, as with so many Japanese runners who have tried and failed to land this in the past, she will be stepping into unknown territory on the likely soft ground. Don’t rule out a big run from Germany’s Mr Hollywood at a really big price, but we see this prize heading to Ireland. The fact that Aidan O’Brien relies on just one horse this year tells you plenty about the confidence behind St. Leger winner Continuous. This late-developing son of Heart’s Cry has rocketed through the ranks over the past couple of months, handles soft ground well, and has already proven his mettle at this trip when landing the Great Voltigeur at York. Possessing both gears and staying power, he can hand O’Brien a third success in Europe’s greatest race.

• Best Bet - Continuous to win @ 6/1 with LiveScoreBet

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