Premier League Long Term Betting: xG Pointers

As we pass the midpoint in January, the second half of the Premier League season promises to be as enthralling as ever. The title would be heading to Anfield if the season ended now, with Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Arsenal joining Liverpool in the Champions League. At the other end of the table, all three promoted sides would return from whence they came, with Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town currently occupying the three relegation positions.

But, of course, the season doesn’t end just yet, with all sides having between 17 and 19 games still to play. We still have time to have a long-range punt on the Premier League Winner, European Qualification, and Relegation markets, but is there any value to find? Here, we look at the xG figures from the season to date before using the average xG points per game to predict how the table may look at the end of the season.

Premier League xG Points Table

The above xG Points Table largely mirrors the actual league table as of 18/01/2024 - at least at the top and bottom. The order may differ, but Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa still occupy the top four positions, whilst Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town remain mired in the relegation zone. Amongst the sides in the top four, Aston Villa and Liverpool have significantly outperformed their xG numbers. Will they keep up that momentum over the second half of the season?

West Ham United are the biggest overperformers, having picked up over 10 points more than their xG figures suggest they should have done, closely followed by Spurs, who are almost 9 points ahead of their expected tally. At the other end of the scale, Brentford have picked up 11 points fewer than their xG performance merits, with Burnley, Chelsea, and Newcastle amongst the other sides who have been playing better – at least from an xG perspective - than their points tally suggests.

xG Predicted Final Table

Our next table multiplies the xG points per game figure for each side by the number of games they have left to play. By combining this result with the points each team already has on the board, we can create our predicted final table.

If the xG prediction pans out, we could be in for yet another thrilling Liverpool vs Manchester City title race. The model predicts that City will come out on top, but with only two points back to Liverpool, it will only take a one-result swing to tilt things in favour of Jurgen Klopp's men.

The remaining Champions League positions remain unchanged, with Arsenal showing a slight regression from last season but still doing enough to grab third, and Villa keeping up the pace to be the breakthrough success, much like Newcastle United last year. Spurs may miss out, but Chelsea’s brute force spending approach could at least do enough to regain a top-six place.

Luton, Sheffield United, and Burnley supporters seeking a ray of light won’t find it in the xG predictions, with all three sides expected to finish way off the pace. That said, should Nottingham Forest receive a 10-point deduction, having been charged with financial irregularities, the battle to beat the drop will look considerably tighter.

Betting Recommendations

With little discrepancy between the current standings and the predicted final table, value betting options aren't immediately obvious. City are odds-on for the title, Villa are odds-on for a top-four finish, and all three sides in the bottom three are heavily odds-on to go down.

That said, given the predicted 8-point gap back to fifth, Villa look a solid proposition for a top 4 finish at 4/5 with BetGoodwin. However, the best price available looks to be the 5/2 with BetUK for Chelsea to finish in the top 6. It has been a slower process than many would have hoped under Mauricio Pochettino, but, for the most part, the Blues have played well this season, and results may follow in the second half of the campaign – particularly if a striker arrives during the January window.

For the more adventurous punters, BetUK are also offering 8/1 on Everton to finish in the top half, which looks a little on the big side – despite the ongoing financial issues casting a cloud over the club. Or how about the wheels coming off at Old Trafford and the Red Devils slipping into the bottom half? 5/1 is the general price for that eventuality.

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