Premier League Analysis and Predictions

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Now into November, we have only one round of the Premier League remaining before the action switches to Qatar for the long-anticipated FIFA World Cup 2022. With a little over a third of the season now in the books, the league table is now beginning to take shape, but perhaps not the exact shape many fans would have expected. 

premier league table 6th november

Premier League Table 6th November 2022 Team Games Points Arsenal 13 34 Manchester City 13 32 Newcastle United 14 27 Tottenham 14 26 Manchester United 13 23 Brighton 13 21 Chelsea 13 21 Liverpool 13 19 Fulham 14 19 Crystal Palace 13 19 Brentford 14 16 Leeds United 13 15 Aston Villa 14 15 Leicester City 14 14 West Ham 14 14 Everton 14 14 Bournemouth 14 13 Southampton 14 12 Wolverhampton Wanderers 14 10 Nottingham Forest 14 10

The big surprise for many is to see Arsenal doing quite this well. Steadily improving for much of last season, the Gunners have exploded into life in 2022/23, dropping only five points across their first 13 fixtures. No Surprise to see Manchester City snapping at their heels, but few would have expected both Liverpool and Chelsea to be so far off the pace this early in the campaign. Then of course we have Newcastle United, flying high in third having carried on where they left off last season.

Points Per Game

Of course, league position does not always accurately reflect level of performance, especially over so small a sample as 13 or 14 games. With so many games being decided by such small margins – a rub of the green here, VAR decision there – many prefer to assess the merits of the individual sides by the underlying numbers, rather than a cursory glance at the league table.

Currently in vogue as one of the key performance analysis metrics is that of expected goals (xG). Given the level of performance - specifically regarding chances created and conceded - how many goals would a side expect to score and concede on average? And following on from this, how would these xG figures translate into expected points? According to data presented by NewBettingSites the table below shows how the Premier League table would look if it were ranked by expected points per game, rather than actual points accumulated.

Expected Points Per Game Premier League Table 8/11/22

Expected Points Per Game Premier League Table 8/11/22

xG Expected Points Per Game Premier League Table 8/11/22 Team xG points per game Manchester City 2.35 Arsenal 2.19 Brighton 1.89 Newcastle United 1.72 Tottenham 1.71 Manchester United 1.54 Liverpool 1.55 Chelsea 1.17 West Ham 1.51 Brentford 1.40 Leeds United 1.38 Crystal Palace 1.13 Aston Villa 1.33 Fulham 1.07 Leicester City 1.07 Southampton 1.10 Everton 1.00 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.09 Nottingham Forest 0.91 Bournemouth 0.75

The first thing to note is that Arsenal and Manchester City’s performance to date is certainly no fluke, with the pair again occupying the top two positions. Newcastle’s lofty position also appears to be merited – albeit by only a whisker over Spurs. Elsewhere, however, there is a little more variety. Brighton are living up to their reputation as the “xG Kings” of the league and sit in third spot. West Ham -15th in the table, but ranked 8th in terms of xG – possibly haven’t been getting the results their performances deserve, whilst the stats would suggest that Fulham are a little fortunate to be sitting as high as they are.

If xG Levels Are Maintained

The next step in our analysis was to use these xG figures as a prediction tool as to how the season might unfold. Of course, we can’t do anything about the points already accumulated, they are set in stone. As such, in order to come up with a predicted points total for each of the sides, we need to combine each of the side’s current points totals, with their xG points per game extrapolated over the remaining games of the season. Doing so returns the following table.

xG Predicted Premier League Table

xG Predicted Premier League Table

xG Predicted Premier League Table Team Predicted points total Manchester City 91 Arsenal 89 Brighton 68 Newcastle United 68 Tottenham 67 Manchester United 61 Liverpool 58 Chelsea 50 West Ham 50 Brentford 50 Leeds United 49 Crystal Palace 47 Aston Villa 47 Fulham 45 Leicester City 40 Southampton 38 Everton 38 Wolverhampton Wanderers 36 Nottingham Forest 32 Bournemouth 31

An interesting result which would see Manchester City crowned champions again – albeit only narrowly over Arsenal – with a yawning gap back to Brighton in third. That would no doubt be a stellar result for the Seagulls, but will the combination of Graham Potter’s absence, and the side’s consistent failure to convert xG into actual goals see the south coast side come up short? That seems the most likely scenario, but odds of 7/2 on Brighton to finish in the top 6 would appear to offer at least fair value at this stage.

One side who do undoubtedly seem to be trending upwards are Newcastle United. Backed by the Saudi millions and with Eddie Howe having done such a remarkable job of transforming the club already, odds of around 7/4 on a top 4 could yet represent a touch of value.

Turning next to the “To Finish in the Top Half” market, two potential bets stand out. Firstly, West Ham’s underlying numbers would indicate that results may soon begin to pick up. Having finished seventh and sixth in the past two seasons respectively, odds of 7/5 may underestimate the chances of the Hammers finishing in the top ten. Brentford meanwhile may be flying a little under the radar, under the astute guidance of the excellent Thomas Frank. Currently sitting eleventh, but in the top 10 of the xG table, odds of 9/2 for a top ten finish (representing only an 18% chance) look a little too big despite their unfashionable status.

And last but not least, the bottom three positions are largely as predicted, with Nottingham Forest (2/5), Bournemouth (8/15) and Wolves (6/5) the current favourites in the market to be playing Championship football next season. Of that trio, however, it would be reasonable to expect an xG improvement from Wolves with Julen Lopetegui now at the helm. Needing only a two-point xG swing with both Southampton and Everton, those seeking a decent value relegation punt may wish to consider a wager on the Saints (2/1) or Toffees (7/2).

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