Norway v England Betting Preview

Following one of the most action-packed and nerve-wracking games in recent memory, England are now only two games away from a first World Cup Final since 1966. Next up, Thomas Tuchel and his troops must come up with a plan to get past Norway and the seemingly unstoppable striking Viking that is Erling Haaland.

Miami is the venue for this huge quarter-final clash which takes place in a prime-time 10pm Saturday evening slot – a blessed relief following the enforced all-nighter resulting from the delayed kick-off against Mexico.

Will the Lions roar into the semi-finals? Or be left scratching their heads as Haaland and Norway row on to the last four? Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, I take a look at the key stats ahead of the game and pick out my best bets for the big game in Miami.

Best Betting Sites for England v Norway

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Norway v England: Head-to-Head Record

Saturday evening’s fixture will be the thirteenth meeting between England and Norway. So far, England have held the edge with seven wins. Norway have two wins, with three games ending in a draw.

However, England fans shouldn’t get too carried away, as Norway have the advantage in the non-friendly encounters, all of which came in World Cup qualifying. Ahead of the 1982 tournament, England won 4-0 at Wembley but lost 2-1 in Oslo. Ahead of the 1994 tournament in the United States, England drew 1-1 at Wembley before losing 2-0 in the reverse fixture.

The most recent clash between the sides came in a 2014 friendly at Wembley Stadium. England came out on top 1-0 that day thanks to a Wayne Rooney penalty.

Team News

England’s problems at right back continue. Jarell Quansah is suspended following his red card against Mexico. With Reece James missing the last three games with a hamstring injury, Djed Spence is expected to earn the start. No other injury concerns, but Marc Guehi, Nico O’Reilly, Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham are all one booking away from missing the semi-final if England progress.

No reported injuries for Norway and no reason to change a side that stunned Brazil in the Last 16.

Stats Analysis and Recommended Bets for Norway v England

A quick glance at the above stats suggests that England have performed marginally better than Norway over their five games in the competition to date – they have scored more, conceded fewer, and their xG for and against figures are better than those of Norway. However, it is worth noting that Norway have faced a tougher average standard of opponent, including France and Brazil. When taking that into consideration, there’s not too much between the sides on the stats.

Next, we need to adjust our figures to create predicted stats for this game. We do this by adjusting the possession percentages to equal 100, and using this new percentage to predict corners, goals, cards, etc. This creates the following table:

With the predicted stats in place, let’s put this work to good use by identifying a selection of stats-based punts to add to what is sure to be a nerve-shredding evening.

First, what can we expect in terms of the correct score? The first thing that stands out is that Norway have outperformed their xG-for – no doubt in large part to the lethal finishing of Erling Haaland. At the other end of the pitch, the predicted goals against and predicted xG against are pretty close at 2 and 1.82.

Using the predicted goals for and against creates a score prediction of Norway 1.63 – 1.99 England. If we instead use the xG numbers, we get Norway 1.25 - 1.76. Rounding these numbers to the nearest goal suggests correct scores of Norway 1 - 2 England and Norway 2 – 2 England.

• Recommended Correct Score Bet - Norway 1 - 2 England @ 8/1 with PricedUp
• Recommended Correct Score Bet - Norway 2 - 2 England @ 12/1 with PricedUp

One of the most obvious bets to stand out on the stats concerns England corners. With our numbers suggesting an average expectation of 5.58 corners for England and an average expectation of 6.66 corners against Norway, England to win over 5.5 corners looks like a solid value punt.

• Recommended Bet - England Over 5.5 Corners @ 11/10 with PricedUp

Finally, Norway have displayed admirable discipline in the tournament to date, conceding an average of only 0.4 cards per game, compared to England’s average of 1.60. Despite this, Norway are favourites to receive the most cards in the game. Side with the stats and back England to pick up the most cards – on what we have seen to date, two cards may be enough for this bet to collect.

Already under pressure due to the problem at right back in the tournament, Djed Spence faces a tough assignment against the tricky Antonio Nusa – particularly as his propensity to break forward can leave him chasing back. At 19/5 with BetMGM, the Tottenham man is a good bet to make his way into the referee's notebook. BetMGM offer the Golden Sub concession, which keeps your bet alive if Spence is taken off before he picks up a card.

Recommended Bet Builder

Following the logic outlined above, I like the look of this Bet Builder from BetMGM.

• England to score over 1.5 Goals - Yes
• England to Receive the Most Cards
• England to win over 5.5 corners

The above Bet Builder pays 17/2 with BetMGM. Adding Harry Kane and Erling Haaland to score anytime boosts the odds to 28/1.