Mexico v England Betting Preview

The show goes on. England rarely seem to do things the easy way at major international tournaments. However, following an almighty scare against DR Congo, captain fantastic Harry Kane rescued the Three Lions to take their place in the Last 16. Next up, a clash with co-hosts Mexico at their iconic Azteca Stadium home.

Following a string of UK friendly kick-off times, it’s a late start for this one, with the game getting underway at 1am on Monday morning. However the game pans out, it seems reasonable to predict a spike in sick days.

Promising to be a typically tense and nerve-wracking occasion, I will be looking to ramp up the excitement even further with a bet on the action. Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, I take a look at the key stats ahead of the game and pick out my best bets for the showdown in Mexico City.

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Mexico v England: Head-to-Head Record

This will represent the tenth meeting between Mexico and England. So far, England have fared best with six wins, compared to two for Mexico and one draw. However, England have never beaten Mexico in Mexico, losing 2-1 in 1959, 1-0 in 1985, and earning a goalless draw in 1969.

Eight of the nine previous meetings were friendlies. The only competitive clash came at the glorious 1966 World Cup, when goals from Bobby Charlton and Roger Hunt helped England to a 2-0 victory in the Group stage.

The most recent meeting came in a 2010 friendly at Wembley Stadium – England winning 3-1 thanks to goals from Ledley King, Peter Crouch, and Glen Johnson.

The Azteca Effect

England certainly aren’t alone in finding the Azteca a tough place to visit. In 88 competitive matches at the Azteca, Mexico have won 69, drawn 17, and lost only twice. Overall, Mexico may not be recognised as one of the powerhouse nations, but that home record is among the best in international football.

While the Mexican fans generate an intimidating atmosphere, the biggest factor behind this record is the altitude. Mexico City is fully 2,240 metres above sea level, creating an environment that few nations are accustomed to. With less oxygen in the air, players tire faster and take longer to recover, particularly in the last 20-30 minutes of games. Rather than the quality of the Mexico side, the biggest hurdle facing England is the height at which the game will be played.

Stats Analysis and Recommended Bets for Mexico v England

Comparing stats between sides over a four-game sample against different opponents is not always reliable. However, with the average ranking of the respective opponents being so similar, it may be worth lending some weight to the above numbers. So how can we expect the game to pan out?

Firstly, it seems reasonable to assume that England will have most of the ball. Adjusting the two percentage figures to equal 100% gives England 56.57% possession. We can then use this figure to predict new totals for the game, assuming England achieves 56.57% possession and Mexico 43.43%. This produces the following table.

Finally, I will use these adjusted stats to identify my bets for what promises to be a nerve-wracking 90 minutes in front of the TV (please no extra time, and definitely not penalties)

First, let’s make a correct score prediction. The stats show that Mexico have slightly outperformed the xG predictions – scoring more and conceding less than the xG numbers suggest. In comparison, England’s output has been as close to xG as you could expect over such a small sample. Combining the xG numbers suggests a correct score of Mexico 0.89 – 1.27. Rounding to the nearest whole number gives us 1-1 (extra time and penalties may be a possibility after all).

• Recommended Correct Score Bet - 1-1 @ 11/2 with QuinnBet

The second bet I like centres around the predicted corners of the two sides. Combining the corners for and corners against stats from the above table creates a forecast of 2.42 corners for Mexico and 4.51 corners for Thomas Tuchel’s men. With a difference of just over 2, I’ll take a chance and back England at -2 in the corner handicap market.

• Recommended Bet - Corners Handicap: England -2 @ 7/4 with BetMGM

Finally, for the stats punts, England look like a good bet to receive the most cards in the game. Our numbers suggest card totals of 0.77 for Mexico and 1.32 cards for England.

Adding a bigger price selection into the mix, Mexico are most dangerous down their left-hand side. Therefore, it isn’t too surprising that the majority of cards have been handed out to players on the right-hand side of the opposition. Predicting who will start at right back isn’t straightforward, but Elliott Anderson may find himself under pressure when helping out on that side and certainly isn’t afraid of a tackle. The new Man City man looks good value to find his way into the referee's notebook.

Recommended Bet Builder

Following the logic outlined above, I like the look of this Bet Builder from BetMGM.

• Both Teams to Score - Yes
• England to Receive the Most Cards
• Corner Handicap – England -2

The above Bet Builder pays 12/1 with BetMGM. Adding England’s talisman Harry Kane to score at any time boosts the odds to 24/1.