Premier League Final Day: Permutations and Best Bets

Premier League Final Day: Permutations and Best Bets

Sunday 19th May sees the Premier League draw to a close following another memorable season in the English top flight. As is tradition, all ten fixtures kick off in unison – but it’s fair to say that some games have a little more riding on them than others.

Here, we look at the remaining possibilities for the battle to beat the drop, the two-way tussle for the title, and the scrap for the European positions. Finally, using data presented by, we pick out our best betting selections as the curtain comes down for another year.

The Relegation Picture

We begin with the least exciting element of Match Day 38 – the battle to beat the drop, as, whilst not official just yet, it will take a turnaround of unprecedented proportions if Luton are to escape on the final day.

Sheffield United have known their fate for some time now, whilst Burnley’s relegation was confirmed with defeat at Tottenham. Luton sit third bottom and only three points adrift of Nottingham Forest, meaning they can draw level with the Tricky Trees should they beat Fulham at Kenilworth Road and Forest lose at Burnley. However, even that scenario is unlikely to be enough, as Luton’s Goal difference is 12 goals inferior to that of Forest - barring something along the lines of Burnley 6 – 0 Forest and Luton 6 – 0 Fulham, the Hatters will join their fellow promoted sides back in the Championship next season.

The Title Tussle

With Liverpool’s challenge having come to a stuttering halt in recent weeks, either Manchester City or Arsenal will be your 2023/24 Premier League Champions – with City the red-hot favourites to get the job done.

Two points clear of Arsenal ahead of their final fixture, if City beat West Ham at home, the trophy is theirs. However, an unexpected draw or defeat opens the door for the Gunners. If Pep Guardiola’s men suffer a shock defeat at the Etihad, and Arsenal see off Everton at the Emirates, then the Gunners will lift the trophy. Likewise, if City draw and Arsenal win, Mikel Arteta’s men will triumph by virtue of a superior goal difference – either way, Arsenal must win to have any chance.

The European Places

Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa will play Champions League football in 2024/25. The permutations for the Europa League and Europa Conference League are more complex. At present, fifth place is good for the Europa League and sixth will take the Conference League position. However, that will change if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the FA Cup Final – in which case fifth and sixth would ensure Europa League football and seventh would be good for the Conference League.

Heading into the final weekend, Spurs sit fifth, three points clear of Chelsea, who are in turn three points clear of Newcastle, who sit above eighth-placed Manchester United on goal difference. Spurs will take the Europa League position with any combination of results other than a Spurs defeat and a Chelsea win.

Chelsea can still finish fifth if they beat Bournemouth at home and Spurs lose at Sheffield United. If Spurs manage to avoid defeat at the basement boys, Chelsea will take the Conference League spot with a win or a draw – which will be upgraded to the Europa League if City win the cup final.

Newcastle’s midweek defeat at Old Trafford dealt a heavy blow to their chances. To finish sixth, Eddie Howes' men must win at Brentford and hope that Chelsea lose at home to Bournemouth. Realistically, seventh seems the best Eddie Howe’s men can hope for now. To hold onto their current position, the Magpies must match or better Manchester United’s result at Brighton. Their fate would then hinge on the result of the FA Cup Final. A City win would see Newcastle qualify for the Conference League. A United win would see Newcastle miss out on Europe.

In contrast, a seventh-place finish for Manchester United (acheived by bettering Newcastle's result) would guarantee the Red Devils a place in Europe. If they win the FA Cup Final, they will qualify for the Europa League. If they lose at Wembley, seventh place becomes a Europa Conference League qualifying spot.

Best Bets

When betting at this late stage of the season, we always favour a punt on games where one side has something to play for, and the other does not. Applying that criteria to the ten Match Day 38 games throws up the following shortlist.

  • Arsenal vs Everton
  • Brentford vs Newcastle
  • Chelsea vs Bournemouth
  • Luton Town vs Fulham
  • Manchester City vs West Ham United
  • Sheffield United vs Tottenham Hotspur

From that sextet, the following punts catch the eye:

  • Arsenal – 2 goals @ 6/5 with BetUK - Averaging over 2.5 goals per home game and desperately needing to win, Arsenal can blow away a Toffees outfit who have averaged under a goal a game on the road
  • Chelsea to Score over 2.5 Goals @ 22/25 with BetUK - Chelsea have been in electrifying form of late, with Cole Palmer enjoying a stellar season at Stamford Bridge. Needing to win to haul in Spurs, they can cut through a Bournemouth outfit who have conceded an average of over 2 goals per game on their travels
  • Luton vs Fulham, over 3.5 goals at 57/50 with BetUK - Luton may face a hopeless task, but expect Rob Edwards' men to go out swinging. Luton home games average 3.28 goals per game, whilst the figure for Fulham away fixtures is 3.06. With the situation lending itself to a wide-open encounter, we see at least four goals in this one

A £10 treble on the above three selections returns £88.51.

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