July Cup Stakes Preview

Saturday 15th July sees the curtain come down on the latest of the major summer racing festivals as the Newmarket July Festival draws to a close. Topping the bill, as always, is the second of the meetings Group 1 contests, as the classiest sprinters in the game do battle over 6f in the historic July Cup.

The 2023 field looks jam-packed with talent, but who will prove the fastest of them all on the day? Here we take a look at the stats and trends for the big race, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk and pick out our best bets in the Saturday afternoon feature.

Age Trends: Younger Legs Hold the Edge

First run in 1918, the race has been held every year since – barring an enforced break due to the onset of the Second World War. Over this time, the younger legs have dominated their older rivals, with 86 of the 101 previous editions (85.15%) falling to a three or four-year-old.

Applying that trend to this year’s list of runners immediately cuts the 9-runner field down to just three. Those up against it from an age perspective include the well-fancied Kinross, Henry Candy’s course winner, Run To Freedom, and recent shock Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes champ, Khaadem.

Trainer Trends: Only Three Have Struck Before

Of the nine trainers currently holding an entry for the race, only three have previously tasted July Cup success. Way out in front is Ballydoyle supremo Aidan O’Brien. Currently, in a tie for the all-time lead with early 1900s trainer Charles Morton, and his Ballydoyle predecessor Vincent O’Brien, Aidan O’Brien will move out on his own as the most successful trainer in the history of the race should he saddle the winner in 2023. The horse bidding to send his trainer into the record books is one of the most brilliant juveniles from last season, Little Big Bear. Only second in the Commonwealth Cup; can he go one better here?

Henry Candy sends the five-year-old Run To Freedom into battle who bids to bounce back from blowing the start in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee stakes. Charles Hills meanwhile relies upon the 80/1 winner of that race, Khaadem, who appears in the form of his life at seven years of age and will have the assistance of the excellent Jamie Spencer once again.

Three Sires to Note

When looking at the past ten editions, three sires have registered multiple winners, namely; Dutch Art, Dark Angel, and No Nay Never. Dutch Art is not represented this year, but Little Big Bear will fly the flag for the strong US speed influence No Nay Never, and both Art Power and Khaadem are by Dark Angel, who didn’t race beyond his juvenile campaign but won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over this trip on the Rowley Mile track at Newmarket.

Other Factors

Ascot the Most Common Route into the Race

Six of the past ten winners have arrived on the back of a run in one of the major 6f sprints at the Royal Ascot Festival. Alcohol Free (2022), Slade Power (2014) and Lethal Force (2013) headed here having finished 9th, 1st, and 1st in the Jubilee Stakes, whilst Ten Sovereigns (2019), Harry Angel (2017), and Muhaarar (2015) finished 4th, 2nd, and 1st in the Commonwealth Cup on their previous start.

This year’s Jubilee Stakes is represented by Khaadem (1st), Kinross (7th), Run To Freedom (9th), Emaraaty Ana (11th), and Art Power (12th). Shaquille (1st) and Little Big Bear (2nd) bid to advertise the Commonwealth Cup form.

Proven Class at the Trip a Must

Again looking at the ten most recent renewals, all ten winners had previously shown high-class winning form over this 6f trip – 6 having already won in Group 1 company, 2 at Group 2 level, and 2 in a Group 3 event. All bar Run To Freedom conform to this trend, with the breakdown as follows:

Shaquille to Score Again

On balance, the winner of this race is most likely to come from this year’s Commonwealth Cup or Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Of those two events, we suspect the form of the race for the three-year-olds may just be a little stronger in 2023, with the time of the Commonwealth Cup around a second quicker than the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. As such, the most obvious place to start is with Commonwealth Cup winner, Shaquille – particularly as the runner-up that day, Little Big Bear, has endured an interrupted preparation ahead of this assignment. The effort of the Julie Camacho runner was all the more remarkable considering he blew the start and, if breaking cleaner here, he may prove tough to stop.

Azure Blue looks like another obvious contender but hasn’t been missed by the market, and those seeking an each-way punt may wish to consider the in-form Khaadem. Heading here from the Jubilee Stakes, and sired by Dark Angel, his advancing years may be against him, but he has enough in his favour to warrant an interest at an attractive double-figure price.

• Best Win Bet - Shaquille @ 7/4 with LiveScoreBet
• Best Each Way Bet - Khaadem @ 10/1 with BetUK

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