Champion Hurdle: Ten-Year Trends and Best Bets

Almost every race at the Cheltenham Festival has its share of drama in the build-up. However, few markets have taken as long to settle as the 2026 Champion Hurdle. 2024 champ and ante-post favourite State Man was ruled out before the season even began. 2023 winner Constitution Hill fell on his seasonal return and has now abandoned a jumping career entirely, while stablemate and turn of the year market leader Sir Gino is out for the season with a pelvic injury.

All of which leaves a Day 1 feature that has a wide-open look to it. Despite the absentees, no shortage of talent remains among the current list of entries, including the shock winner of the 2025 edition, and three further Cheltenham Festival winners.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we attempt to unravel the Champion Hurdle puzzle by taking a look back at the past ten editions of the 2m showpiece, highlighting the standout stats and trends, and picking out our best bets for the £450,000 contest.

Champion Hurdle: Happy Hunting Ground for Favourite Backers

The market leader has an excellent recent record in the Champion Hurdle, with seven of the ten editions in our sample falling to the favourite. Four of those favourites returned an odds-on SP, but a £1 level stakes punt on the market leader still returned a profit of £4.76. The biggest shocks were provided by 2025 heroine Golden Ace, who scored at 25/1, and 16/1 chance Espoir D’Allen, who came home in front in 2019.

Champion Hurdle: Age of Winner

Open to runners aged five and older, the Champion Hurdle has favoured horses towards the younger end of the age spectrum in recent years. Only two nine-year-olds have won in the current century, while the most recent winner aged ten or older was the brilliant Sea Pigeon back in 1981. Focusing on our ten-year sample, nine of the ten winners were between six and eight years of age. The one exception was Espoir D’Allen, who became the second five-year-old to win in the current century when causing a shock in 2019.

With Constitution Hill set to play no part, the only remaining runner who falls outside the six-to-eight-year-old age bracket is the five-year-old Poniros, who stunned the crowd with his 100/1 win in the Triumph Hurdle at the 2025 Festival.

Top Trainers

With four wins in the past decade and nine in total, Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in the history of the Champion Hurdle. Henderson is unlikely to add to that tally in 2026. In the absence of Constitution Hill and Sir Gino, his only remaining entry is the rank outsider of the remaining runners, Lucky Place. Yet to win over this trip or in Grade 1 company, the 2m5f handicap on Day 2 looks like a more suitable assignment.

Willie Mullins is without his main contender, State Man, but is responsible for four of the remaining entries. Three-time Cheltenham Festival winner Lossiemouth is the shortest price of that quartet, followed by 2025 Triumph winner Poniros. Ballyburn has been running over further of late but was a Grade winner over this trip in his younger years. Anzadam, meanwhile, has long been touted as potentially top-class, but has yet to deliver on the hype.

Jeremy Scott achieved the biggest result of his training career when Golden Ace claimed the 2025 edition and sends the mare to defend her crown in 2026.

Of the other recent winning trainers, Henry De Bromhead’s Workahead is more likely to tackle the County Hurdle, and Gavin Cromwell doesn’t hold an entry this year.

Rating of Winner

The average rating of the Champion Hurdle has been relatively steady in recent years, falling from around 164 to 161. That drop-off can be attributed to the success of Golden Ace in 2025. With Constitution Hill departing early that day and State Man falling with the race at his mercy, it is reasonable to suggest Golden Ace was a little fortunate on the day. If we ignore that result, the average rating of the winner comes out at 164, with seven of ten winners rated 161 or higher.

When looking at this year’s line-up, the current market leader, The New Lion, is rated 159, while all twelve remaining entries are rated below 161. The two who come closest to the average are the 160-rated duo of Ballyburn and Brighterdaysahead.

Key Trials

The Irish Champion Hurdle was the most influential prep race in our sample, with State Man and Honeysuckle (twice), following up a win in the Leopardstown event with success in this race. Brighterdaysahead ran out an impressive 3¼l winner of the 2026 Irish Champion Hurdle, with Lossiemouth second, Poniros third, and Anzadam fourth. That’s among the best form on offer, but the Gordon Elliott mare has disappointed in two previous outings at the Cheltenham Festival.

Moving down the list, the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown was discontinued in 2023. The Christmas Hurdle, of course, remains part of the programme, but impressive six-length winner Sir Gino is out for the season. That leaves runner-up Golden Ace to represent the Kempton form in 2026.

Of the other trials on our list, Kingwell Hurdle winner Alexei represents the Joe Tizzard team. There are no runners from the Punchestown race in the field, while Workahead managed only a well-beaten fourth in the Limestone Lad Hurdle.

Other Factors

• All ten winners had previously won over the 2m trip
• All ten winners won last time out
• Eight of ten winners had previously won in Grade 1 company
• Seven of ten winners had previously won at the track.
• Nine of ten winners had appeared at a previous edition of the Cheltenham Festival, including six previous festival winners.

Best Bets: Lion to Roar for Skelton

This is a far from vintage renewal, with the entire field falling below the average ten-year official rating. However, if there is one horse capable of significant improvement, it is surely the Dan Skelton-trained The New Lion. A rock-solid winner of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle last season, his only defeat in seven career outings came when falling in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his seasonal return. The unfortunate injury to Sir Gino left the International Hurdle at his mercy last time, but we were impressed by his change of gear in the straight. In an open year, he is fancied to come out on top.

With the likes of Lossiemouth, Anzadam, and Ballyburn holding alternative entries, and Brighterdaysahead yet to show her best form at the track, the pick of the each-way options is the Joe Tizzard-trained Alexei. Already a winner over course and distance, he arrives on the back of a fine win in the Kingwell Hurdle and is worth chancing at the standout 22/1 with AK Bets.

• Recommended Bet - The New Lion to win @ 5/2 with AK Bets
• Recommended Bet - Alexei each way @ 22/1 with AK Bets