Betting Against the Public Explained


deciding against public

Betting against the public revolves around a simple betting strategy that seemingly allows wise bettors to exploit certain angles and record significant wins by betting against what seems to be the general opinion on an outcome.

Driven by the simplest of logic, Fading the Public – as it is also known – will see you place your wager on a team other than the one people are loading bets on. Psychology behind this strategy is based on a commonly accepted truth that public tends to back the bookies’ favourites, as human nature is believed to be rooted with innate proclivity towards winners.

Betting operators do not take human psychology lightly and will form their odds accordingly, shading and down-pricing the favourites in order to achieve profits themselves and avoid losing big money.

Bookies will often go too far and make a side appear just too good to be true, which prudent bettors will learn to recognize and exploit.

Pushed by public loading bets on a certain outcome, bookies will often move the lines to shade the favourites, which as a result offers more value to the brave bettors going against the public opinion.

The biggest myth about betting against the public, however, is that is can yield consistent results and be of great benefit in the long run, which hardly ever is the truth. Fading the public can be rather a detrimental strategy for beginners and amateurs who are just getting into the betting business and are not skilled at recognising the value bet just yet.

The very idea that betting against everybody can make you a betting professional is wrong to start with, so you need to be very careful with fading the favourites.

Bookies will often be forced to cut the prices due to a wrongfully conceived perception of a favourite, which tends to be universally accepted as a team / horse / player given short odds to win.

In this regard, the only way you can bet against the public successfully is to understand that true favourites in an event come in different guises and are not determined solely by their perceived strength comparing to the rival on the occasion.

In short, odds do not define favourites – they are determined through a variety of factors such as current form, head to head statistics, motivation and confidence, alongside the team news or injury reports which can also be of value in helping you determine the favourites in a – let’s say – game of football.

Betting against the favourite can be a rather risky and costly business for all of those who do not follow through with thorough research and analysis that can get them an edge over the public opinion.

Arsenal’s 3-0 defeat at Crystal Palace in April 2017 was a good example of a valuable bet against the public where everybody expected the quality-packed Arsenal side to beat struggling Eagles, who ended up being more motivated than Champions League crushed Gunners running on fumes at Selhurst Park.

Similarly, betting against the public is not always a good choice and those who claimed Arsenal will once again stumble and fall in their next match at Middlesbrough seven days later might have experienced heavy losses if they simply faded the public without analysing it through to utter detail.

Best 10 New Bookmakers

£15 SIGN UP HERE

New customers only. Min dep £10 with odds min 4/5 (1.80),Full terms apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

£20 SIGN UP HERE

New customers only. Max one £20 free bet. Min deposit £10. Odds of 1/1 or greater on a single or combo bet. Paid as bonus token valid for a bet placed using the bet builder feature, with min 4/5 odds req - valid for 14 days. Skrill, neteller & paypal not eligible. T&c apply, 18+

£40 SIGN UP HERE

18+ New customers only. Opt in & bet via mobile up to £40 (min. £20) on any football market at odds of 2.00+, in 7 days. Get up to £40 in free bets on selected markets. Bonuses expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly.

£100 SIGN UP HERE

New players only | Maximum bonus is 100% up to £100 | Min. deposit is £20 | No max cash out | Wagering is 35x bonus | Maximum bet with an active bonus is £5 | Skrill & Neteller deposits excluded | Cashback applies to deposits where no bonus is included | T&C's apply

£50 SIGN UP HERE

New Customers only. Deposit and bet on any sportsbook Markets with min odds of 2.0. Get 50% Back of your first days' losses as a Free bet up to £50+£20 Casino Bonus.

£111 SIGN UP HERE

#AD 18+, New customers only, min deposit £10, wagering 60x for refund bonus, max bet £5 with bonus funds. Free Spins bonus has x40 wagering. 23 free spins on registration (max withdrawal is £100). 100% refund bonus up to £111 + 77 spins on 1st deposit. No max cash out on deposit offers. Eligibility is restricted for suspected abuse. Ecopayz, Skrill or Neteller excluded. Full T&Cs apply.

£10 SIGN UP HERE

18+, New customers sign up with code "bet10get10". Deposit £10 or more and place a £10 bet at min odds 2.0. Get a £10 free bet. Free bets expire after 7 days. Full terms apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

0 SIGN UP HERE
£50 SIGN UP HERE

Full T&Cs apply. New UK and ROI customers only. The qualifying bet should be a single bet, start at £/€10, and have 1.9 or greater odds. 5 Free bets include: 1 x £10 Free bet on horse racing, 1 x £10 Free bet on football, 2 x 10 Free bet in-play, 1 x £10 Free bet Acca. 7 day expiry.

£40 SIGN UP HERE

New cust only. 3 days to claim & 7 days to place a qualifying bet to receive 4x Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder, 1 x £10 Acca and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. T&Cs apply.