Who Will Win the Topham Chase?

Not long now until the biggest race of the year, as the Merseyside venue of Aintree once again prepares for the latest edition of the historic Grand National. A race so good deserves a full festival of supporting action, and the Grand National duly gets one, with its three-day meeting kicking off on Thursday 13th of April.

One of the standout contests on the Ladies' Day of Friday provides fans with an early glimpse of those famous National fences, as the runners and riders line up for the popular betting heat that is the Topham Chase.

Here we take a look at the race from a trends perspective using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk, highlighting the runners most likely to come out on top over the likes of Becher’s Brook, Valentines, and The Chair.

Age Trends

The overall trend shows that is rare to see a runner either younger than seven or older than eleven win this event. Eight to ten years of age seems to be the sweet spot, with just under 66% of winners falling into that age bracket. Focussing on this range seems a good place to start when seeking an each-way bet for this year's race, and helps whittle the list of entries down from 61 to 41.

Weight Carried Trends

Logic would dictate that slogging a big weight over these formidable obstacles would prove to be a difficult task, and this view largely comes through in the stats. Of the 73 editions to have been held to date, 58 (79.5%) have been won by a runner saddled with between 10st and 11st5lb on the day. Applying that filter to the remaining runners brings us down to 26.

Other Factors

• Recent Run a Big Plus - Nine of the previous 10 winners had run within 35 days of the race.
• Proven Stamina a Bonus - Nine of the previous 10 winners had already finished placed over a distance of at least 2m5f.
• Solid Recent Form is not necessarily a positive - Of the past ten winners, none had won on their most recent start, and seven had finished outside of the placed positions. This may be due to their previous runs being used as no more than a warm-up ahead of their big target.
• Irish Sires have a Poor Recent Record - None of the past ten winners has been by an Irish sire.

Summary: Escaria The Each Way Value and Large Worth a Small Flutter

Applying all of the above criteria brings us down to a shortlist of just three contenders - namely, Gordon Elliott’s Escaria Ten, fellow Irish raider Farceur Du Large from the Noel Meade operation, and Sean Bowen’s Francky Du Berlais. The last named of that trio has had three cracks at this course and distance without managing to get within 14 lengths of the winner, so needs to find improvement from somewhere at ten years of age. However, the other two look much more interesting.

Escaria Ten is the main each-way selection at 16/1 with BetUK having shown he handles these obstacles when ninth in last season's Grand National. He only tired in the closing stages that day, so the drop back in trip ought to be in his favour. Farceur Du Large also goes into the staking plan at 25/1 with the same firm. Hailing from a yard which won the Grand National with Rule The World in 2016, he is less exposed than many of these and is already a dual winner over this sort of trip.

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