Something for the Weekend: Best Racing and Football Bets

The fixtures continue to come thick and fast in the Premier League as we move towards the festive period. This weekend sees a cracking list of games on offer, headlined by the Saturday night clash between Newcastle United and Manchester United at St. James Park and the Sunday afternoon sizzler at the Etihad, as champions Manchester City play host to Tottenham Hotspur. The pick of the racing action comes at Newbury, where the race formerly known as the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup takes centre stage.

Here, using data presented by newbettingsites.co.uk, we pick our two best bets from Newbury and the headline Premier League fixtures.

Saturday: Newbury 2:15 pm Coral Bet Bundles Intermediate Handicap Hurdle

The appearance of Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill and Shiskin may grab much of the limelight at Newcastle on Saturday afternoon, but the Lambourn trainer is also strongly represented at Newbury, with a number of live chances on the card. The pick of the bunch for our money is the Doctor Dino mare, Under Control, who may prove hard to beat in this event for the up-and-coming hurdlers.

Since joining the yard in February, the four-year-old has won three of four starts, with the only blip coming when running as though something was amiss at the Cheltenham Festival. Quickly getting that out of her system with a Grade 3 success at Prestbury Park, the pick of her efforts came on her final start of last season when she saw off stablemate Iberico Lord at Sandown.

Iberico Lord has already made his seasonal return when winning the Greatwood Hurdle in hugely impressive fashion, whilst the third, fourth, and sixth from that Sandown event have also won since. The form looks solid, and a mark of 137 could prove on the lenient side for Under Control - without factoring in any possible improvement following a recent wind-op. With James Bowen in the saddle, she looks the one to be on.

• Best Bet - Under Control @ 11/8 with LiveScoreBet

Saturday: Newbury 2:50 pm Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase

One of the classiest staying handicaps of the season takes centre stage on the Newbury card, with Cheltenham Gold Cup heroes Native River and Denman and Grand National Champ Many Clouds featuring on the recent roll of honour.

On paper, a host of these boast solid claims. As such, we will turn to the trends to whittle down the list of runners. When looking at the results from the current century, 21 of 23 winners were between six and nine years of age, 20 of 23 had previously won over at least 3m, and 18 of 23 had finished in the first three on their most recent appearance. Applying those filters to the field creates a shortlist of just four - Midnight River, Stolen Silver, Mahler Mission, and Twig. Midnight River appeals at around the 10/1 mark, but at a slightly bigger price, the Sam Thomas-trained Stolen Silver just gets the vote. This one scored impressively over just short of this trip on his seasonal return and gets a 4lb pull in the weights with Midnight River having finished just over 2l behind that rival over 2m4½ in January.

• Best Bet - Stolen Silver each way @ 14/1 with BetGoodwin

Saturday: 8:00 pm Newcastle United vs Manchester United

A classic Premier League matchup provides the Saturday evening entertainment as Erik ten Hag and Manchester United travel to St. James’s Park to take on Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United. Both sides were in action in the Champions League in midweek – Newcastle having to settle for a point at PSG courtesy of a universally condemned penalty decision in the 98th minute, and Manchester United letting a two-goal lead slip at Galatasaray, courtesy of another Andre Onana calamity.

Sitting sixth and seventh before the weekend games, the table suggests there is little between these two, but what do the xG numbers say? Newcastle’s home numbers sit at an average of 2.51xG for and 0.91xG against. Manchester United’s away games have produced 1.41 xG for and 1.75 xG against. Combining those figures suggests a scoreline of Newcastle 2.13, Manchester United 1.16. If they were at full strength, Newcastle would rate a confident selection. Even with the injury and fatigue factor against them, we still fancy the Magpies to edge an entertaining encounter.

• Best Bet - Newcastle to win and Both Teams to Score @ 13/5 with StarSports

Sunday: 2:00 pm Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur

Having started the season in flying form under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs have hit a roadblock of late and head into the weekend seeking to avoid a fourth defeat on the spin. However, they couldn’t face a much stiffer assignment as they bid to stop the rot. Spurs have the advantage of a free week, whereas Manchester City were made to work pretty hard to come from two goals down against RB Leipzig in the Champions League.

However, any freshness advantage enjoyed by Spurs may not be enough, given the side's extensive list of absentees. First choice centre back duo Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero miss out through injury and suspension, with James Maddison, Richarlison, and Rodrigo Bentancur also sidelined. City, in contrast, are thought to have no new concerns.

At home, City are posting figures of 1.62 xG for and 0.80xG against, whilst Spurs numbers on the road sit at 1.73 for and 1.39 against. Combining those numbers suggests a tight encounter, with a predicted score of Manchester City 1.51, Tottenham 1.27. We expect Spurs to get on the scoresheet, but with the injury situation so heavily against them, they seem likely to come up short at the home of the champions.

• Best Bet - Man City to win and Both Teams to Score @ 29/20 with Midnite