Rugby Betting Explained Simply

Rugby Union betting becomes much easier to understand once you know three basic markets: the match result, the handicap and total points. From there, you can move on to try scorers, winning margins, tournament bets and other player or team markets.

The important point is that predicting the better rugby team is only part of the decision. You also need to understand the odds, the conditions attached to the market and how the bookmaker will settle the bet.

This guide covers Rugby Union rather than Rugby League. Although the two sports share some betting terminology, their rules and scoring systems differ.

How scoring works in Rugby Union

Understanding the scoring system makes markets such as handicaps, total points and winning margins much easier to follow.

Under the World Rugby scoring laws, points are awarded as follows:

A converted try therefore produces seven points, while two successful penalties produce six. Those scoring increments help explain why rugby bookmakers frequently use half-point handicap and totals lines: a line such as 7.5 or 45.5 cannot finish level.

Match result betting

The simplest Rugby Union market is the match result. You are betting on which team will be ahead at the end of the period covered by the market.

A standard three-way market may offer:

• home team to win;
• draw;
• away team to win.

For example, if England are playing Wales and you back England in a standard match-result market, England need to be ahead when that market is settled.

The phrase when the market is settled is important. Standard Rugby Union betting markets are commonly based on the score after 80 minutes plus any additional playing time required to complete the current passage of play. Extra time is generally excluded unless the market explicitly says otherwise.

Current Sky Bet Rugby Union rules, for example, state that its standard betting applies to 80 minutes including injury time, with extra time excluded. Other bookmakers may word their rules differently, so check the market description rather than assuming knockout extra time will count.

Rugby handicap betting explained

Handicap betting gives one team a theoretical points advantage and the other a points deficit. It is particularly common when one side is a strong favourite and the ordinary match-winner odds are very short.

Suppose New Zealand are listed at -9.5 against an opponent.

If you back New Zealand -9.5, they need to win by at least 10 points for the handicap bet to win. A nine-point victory would not be enough.

The other team would usually be available at +9.5. If you back them, your bet can win if they:

• win the match;
• draw the match; or
• lose by nine points or fewer.

The important distinction is that you are betting on the result after the handicap has been applied, not simply on which team wins the actual game.

What happens with a whole-number handicap?

A line such as -10 rather than -10.5 introduces another possibility. If the favourite wins by exactly 10 points, applying the handicap produces a tie.

How that is handled depends on the market. Some two-way handicap markets return the stake when the adjusted scores are level, while other handicap markets include the draw as a separate selection.

For that reason, do not assume that every -10 handicap works exactly like a -10.5 line. Check whether the market has two or three possible outcomes.

Total points betting

Total points, also called an over/under market, lets you bet on the combined score without choosing the winning team.

Suppose the bookmaker sets the total at 45.5 points.

• Over 45.5 wins if the teams combine for 46 points or more.
• Under 45.5 wins if the final combined score is 45 points or fewer.

A final score of 27-20 produces 47 points, so an Over 45.5 bet would win. A score of 20-17 produces 37, so Under 45.5 would win.

The identity of the winner does not matter. That makes totals useful when you have a view about the type of game you expect but are less certain which team will come out on top.

What can affect a rugby points total?

Several parts of the match can influence scoring:

• the attacking and defensive quality of the teams;
• goal-kicking accuracy;
• discipline and the number of kickable penalties conceded;
• weather and playing conditions;
• the strength of each side's set piece;
• team selection and injuries;
• the tactical approach expected from each team.

Wet or windy conditions do not automatically guarantee a low-scoring game, just as two attacking teams do not guarantee a high total. These factors need to be considered alongside the price and the line set by the bookmaker.

Try-scorer betting

Player markets are a major part of Rugby Union betting, particularly for international matches and major club competitions.

The most familiar are try-scorer markets.

First try scorer

You select the player you believe will score the first qualifying try of the match.

Because you need to identify both a scorer and when their try occurs relative to everybody else's, first try-scorer odds are normally higher than anytime try-scorer odds for the same player.

Anytime try scorer

Your chosen player needs to score a qualifying try at any point during the period covered by the market.

If the player scores twice, an ordinary anytime try-scorer single still pays according to the quoted odds for scoring at least once. Separate markets may be available for a player to score two or more tries.

Last try scorer

This market asks you to predict the player who scores the final qualifying try.

A player can score earlier in the match as well. What matters is that no other qualifying try is scored afterwards.

Check substitute rules before betting

Player participation rules can be particularly important for try-scorer bets.

For example, Betfair's Rugby Union rules state that a substitute who takes part can count for its relevant try-scorer markets, while first try-scorer bets on certain substitutes can be void if the first try is scored before they enter the match.

Bookmakers can apply different participation conditions. Check whether your player needs to start, merely take part or be on the field before a particular event.

Player points betting

Some bookmakers also offer lines on how many points an individual player will score.

This type of market is often centred on the team's goal-kicker because conversions and penalties can account for a large share of an individual's total.

If a bookmaker sets a player's line at 11.5 points, you might be able to back:

• Over 11.5 points; or
• Under 11.5 points.

Team selection matters here. Check who is expected to take penalties and conversions rather than assuming a familiar kicker will automatically have that role in every match.

Winning margin betting

Winning-margin markets ask you to predict not only which team wins but approximately how many points they win by.

A bookmaker might divide the possible margins into ranges such as:

• 1-5 points;
• 6-10 points;
• 11-15 points;
• 16-20 points;
• 21 points or more.

The exact bands vary. Because there are more possible outcomes than in an ordinary match-result market, winning-margin betting requires a more specific prediction.

Always check whether the draw is a separate selection and whether the market covers regulation time only.

Half-time and half-time/full-time markets

You can also bet on the result at half-time rather than waiting for the end of the match.

A half-time/full-time market combines two predictions. For example:

France/England would mean France are leading at half-time but England are the winning selection at full-time.

Other combinations can include the draw at either stage. These bets are harder to land because both parts of the prediction need to be correct.

Tournament and league outright betting

You do not have to bet on an individual match. Outright markets allow you to make predictions about an entire competition.

Depending on the event, markets can include:

• tournament winner;
• league winner;
• group winner;
• team to reach a particular knockout round;
• top try scorer;
• top points scorer.

Major Rugby Union competitions such as the Six Nations and Rugby World Cup generally attract a wider range of outright markets than smaller competitions.

An outright bet can remain unsettled for weeks or months, so check the rules covering withdrawals, abandoned competitions, tied positions and dead heats where relevant.

In-play rugby betting

Many Rugby Union markets remain available after kick-off. Odds then change as the match develops.

A try, red card, injury or run of penalties can produce a significant change in the live match odds, handicap or points total.

In-play markets may include:

• live match winner;
• updated handicaps;
• updated total points;
• next team to score;
• next scoring play;
• live try-scorer markets.

Do not assume a television or online stream is showing events in real time. The Gambling Commission warns that live broadcasts can be delayed, meaning people at the stadium or using faster data may know what has happened before somebody watching at home.

Bookmakers can also suspend markets around important incidents or introduce a delay before confirming an in-play wager.

What should you check before betting on rugby?

Team selection

A missing fly-half, goal-kicker or influential forward can change how a team is expected to play. Check the announced squads rather than relying only on the team's reputation.

Goal-kicking

Penalties and conversions can decide close matches and affect totals, handicaps and individual player points markets. Knowing who is likely to kick at goal is therefore useful.

Set-piece strength

Scrums and lineouts can create field position, penalties and try-scoring opportunities. A significant mismatch in these areas can influence the way a game develops.

Discipline

Penalties give opponents opportunities to kick for points, kick to touch or build attacking pressure. Yellow and red cards can also change the balance of a match.

Weather

Wind and rain can affect handling, kicking and tactics. Weather should be treated as one factor rather than a guaranteed reason to bet under a points line.

The odds

A team being likely to win does not automatically make it a good bet. A very short price may already reflect the difference in quality between the sides.

This is why handicap markets are so prominent in rugby: they let bettors form a view on how much better one team is expected to be rather than simply whether it will win.

Common Rugby Union betting mistakes

• Confusing Rugby Union with Rugby League: the sports have different rules and scoring systems, so make sure you are researching the correct code.
• Assuming extra time counts: many standard match markets are settled on the regulation 80-minute result unless stated otherwise.
• Misreading the handicap: backing -9.5 means the team needs to win by at least 10, not merely win the match.
• Ignoring player participation rules: substitutes and non-starters can be treated differently between try-scorer markets and bookmakers.
• Ignoring the price: correctly predicting the winner does not necessarily mean the odds offered good value.
• Chasing losses in-play: increasing stakes because an earlier rugby bet lost does not improve the probability of the next selection.

Check the bookmaker's Rugby Union rules

Market names can look identical at two betting sites while the settlement conditions differ.

Before placing a bet, check:

• whether settlement is based on 80 minutes or includes extra time;
• what happens if a match is abandoned or postponed;
• how whole-number handicap ties are handled;
• what happens if a selected player does not start or does not play;
• whether penalty tries count towards a particular try market;
• how any tournament tie or dead heat is settled.

This is particularly important for player and special markets, where conditions can be more detailed than for an ordinary match-result bet.

Starting with Rugby Union betting

For a beginner, there is little need to start with complicated combinations. Match result, handicap and total points markets are enough to learn how rugby odds respond to team strength, scoring and the expected shape of a game.

Try-scorer and other player markets can then make more sense once you understand team selection, playing positions and the bookmaker's participation rules.

Whatever market you use, no rugby bet is guaranteed. Decide how much you are prepared to spend before betting and do not increase stakes simply to recover previous losses.

Online betting in Great Britain is restricted to people aged 18 or over. If betting stops being enjoyable or becomes difficult to control, stop and seek support rather than attempting to win losses back.