Royal Ascot 2023: Prince of Wales’s Stakes Preview

As we head into the depths of what is turning out to be the glorious month of June, next week sees the racing thermometer rise to match that of the weather as the always excellent Royal Ascot Festival looms into view. Five days of the best racing action are in store, with at least one top-tier Group 1 contest on each day.

Topping the pile on Day 2, is the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, which sees the best of the older performers do battle over a mile and a quarter. Featuring the likes of Dubai Millennium, Ouija Board, and Love on the roll of honour, this is one of the premier events of its type of the season, and looks to have attracted a star-studded cast once again in 2023. Here we take an early look at how this 1m2f firecracker is shaping up, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk to pick out our best bets for what promises to be a fascinating contest.

Value Lies with the 5-Year-Olds

Prince of Wales’s Stakes: 10-Year Age Trends

The table above collates the results of the past ten editions of this race and throws up some interesting findings. The first thing to note is that runners older than five have a poor recent record here, with the past 14 horses from that age bracket failing to hit the target.

With five wins apiece, the record of four and five-year-olds appears pretty even at first glance. However, the four-year-olds achieved that tally from a total of 39 runners, whereas the five-year-olds required only 23.

Interestingly, that superior strike rate for the five-year-olds carries over into the ROI column. Simply backing every five-year-old to line up in this race over the past ten years would have returned a healthy +4.35% profit.

For those interested in following this angle, the five-year-olds currently entered in this year's edition are Adayar, Bay Bridge, Bolshoi Ballet, Dubai Honour, and Mostahdaf.

Big Guns Lead the Way in the Training Ranks

A total of 10 trainers currently hold an entry this year, but only four have previously tasted success in the race. Joseph O’Brien seems to have learnt plenty from his father and is already off the mark, but it is the powerhouse operations of Aidan O’Brien, John & Thady Gosden, and Sir Michael Stoute who lead the way with four wins apiece.

Aidan O’Brien currently has three entries in Luxembourg, Point Lonsdale, and Bolshoi Ballet; the Gosdens also have three entered up in Emily Upjohn, Mostahdaf, and Nashwa, whilst Sir Michael Stoute relies on Bay Bridge following the setback suffered by the well-fancied Desert Crown. Joseph O’Brien, meanwhile, saddles one of the big outsiders, Above The Curve.

Classy Pedigree a Major Positive

In the modern era, the two most significant bloodlines are those emanating from Dubai Millennium through Dubawi, and that of Sadler’s Wells through Galileo. This contest has been a fine advert for those stallion branches, with 7 of the past ten winners featuring either a strong Dubawi or Sadler’s Wells element to their pedigree.

The runners to fit the bill in 2023 are Adayar, West Wind Blows, Mostahdaf, Nashwa, Dubai Honour, Above The Curve, Bolshoi Ballet, Luxembourg, Point Lonsdale, and Bay Bridge.

Bay the Way to Go and Above a Possible Curve Ball

There’s plenty to recommend Adayar at the head of the market, with the five year old boasting strong Galileo and Dubawi elements to his pedigree and seemingly coming back to form at just the tight time. We wouldn't put anyone off, but given the excellent record of Sir Michael Stoute in the race, it is Bay Bridge who just gets our vote. Already a winner over this course and distance – having mastered both Adayar and the brilliant Baeed in last season's Champion Stakes – this five-year-old grandson of Dubawi looks the best value bet in the race from a win perspective.

Mosthadaf is a good each-way fit on the trends but has had a few cracks at this type of contest now, and preference is for the Joseph O’Brien-trained four-year-old, Above The Curve. By US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, he has plenty of class to call upon, and the presence of Galileo on the dam side is a big positive. Largely consistent in his career to date - finishing in the first three in six of nine starts - he is already a Group 1 winner over this trip, having landed the Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last season. Warming up nicely for this with a Group 2 win at Saint-Cloud, he may be a little underestimated by the market here.

• Best Win Bet - Bay Bridge @ 5/1 with BetUK
• Best Each Way Bet - Above The Curve @ 33/1 with BetUK

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