Premier League: Best Bets for the Weekend Action

The frenetic pace continues in the festive Premier League period. Hot on the heels of a full midweek fixture list, all twenty sides are back in action this coming weekend, with the Match Day 15 slate of games including fixtures which may prove pivotal in the title race, fight for Europe, and battle to beat the drop.

There’s a strong theme of local rivalry running through this weekend’s televised menu, which kicks off with the Merseyside derby and includes two all-London affairs. Here, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk, we pick out our four best bets on another enthralling weekend of action.

Everton vs Liverpool – Saturday, 12:30 pm

For many, Liverpool have one hand on the trophy following last weekend’s victory over Manchester City at Anfield. However, it is far from over just yet, and the Reds saw their lead clipped to seven points following that thrilling 3-3 draw at St. James’s Park. Next up, they travel across town to face an Everton outfit on a high following a midweek 4-0 battering of Wolves. Now five points clear of the drop zone, the Toffees will look to keep the momentum going with a positive result against their fierce rivals.

It was honours even in this clash last season, with Everton coming out on top 2-0 in this one and Liverpool winning by the same scoreline in the reverse fixture at Anfield. Tim Iroegbunam and James Garner are out for the hosts, whilst Liverpool remain a little understrength at the back thanks to the absences of Kostas Tsimikas and Ibrahima Konaté.

Following a slow start at home in which they lost to Brighton and Bournemouth – conceding three times each time – Everton are now unbeaten in five at Goodison. Wins over Crystal Palace and Wolves and draws with Newcastle, Fulham and Brentford represent a solid return, but this is by far their biggest test.

Liverpool will be disappointed to have conceded late at Newcastle, but that draw stretches their unbeaten run in all competitions to 17 games. Yet to taste defeat in seven away Premier League fixtures, they have scored two or more in six of those seven games. However, there have been signs of vulnerability at the back, with Liverpool conceding twice at Arsenal and Southampton and three times at Newcastle in their past three away games.

Looking at the xG figures, Everton are averaging 1.25 xG-for at home and 1.62xG against. Liverpool leads the away table with impressive averages of 2.43 for and 1.05 against.

There were signs in the first half at Newcastle that Liverpool may be feeling the pace of their heavy schedule. Throw in the derby element, and this looks like a tricky fixture. However, with Mo Salah back to his unplayable best, Liverpool can find the gaps in an Everton defence, which has shipped a large number of chances to significantly inferior attacks.

• Best Bet - Liverpool to win and Both Teams to Score @ 2/1 with Midnite

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest – Saturday 5:30 pm

There have been definite signs of encouragement since Ruben Amorim took up residence in the Old Trafford dugout. However, that early momentum met a roadblock in the shape of Arsenal at the Emirates in midweek. Back on home turf, this looks an ideal opportunity for the Red Devils to get back on track against a Forest side which lost 3-0 at Manchester City in midweek. Separated by just three points heading into the game, United will leapfrog Forest if they pick up all three points.

The sides split the points last season, Manchester United winning 3-2 in this game but losing 2-1 at the City Ground.

United have rebounded well since a 3-0 home defeat to Spurs to go unbeaten in their past seven fixtures at Old Trafford. That run includes wins over Brentford, Leicester, and Everton and a draw with high-flying Chelsea. Encouragingly, they have conceded one or fewer in each of their last four Premier League games here.

Following a flying start, Forest have begun to slip back down to earth with three defeats in their last four in the league. In fairness, two of those losses came at Arsenal and Manchester City, and it should be remembered that they are the only side to beat Liverpool so far this season.

Manchester United’s average xG figures at home are disappointing for a club with European aspirations – sitting at 1.58 for and 1.60 against. Forest’s respective numbers on the road are 1.46 for and 1.56 against.

Combining the xG numbers suggests a goal expectation of around three for this game. Add in United’s more attacking approach, and Forest’s ability on the break and over 2.5 goals looks like a solid option for the Saturday teatime clash.

• Best Bet - Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 with QuinnBet

Fulham vs Arsenal – Sunday, 2:00 pm

The first of the Super Sunday double bill takes us to Craven Cottage for a clash between inconsistent Fulham and title hopefuls Arsenal. Having threatened to challenge the European positions, Fulham have now slipped to twelfth. They arrive on a shorter break, having faced Brighton on Thursday evening, whereas Arsenal comfortably dispatched Manchester United on Wednesday.

Fulham did their bit to dent Arsenal’s title challenge last season, winning 2-1 in this game and picking up a point courtesy of a 2-2 draw at the Emirates.

Marco Silva’s men rebounded from a terrible 4-1 home defeat to Wolves to pick up a battling point at Spurs last weekend. Before the Brighton game, they had won three of six at home, with both teams scoring in all six of those games.

Following back-to-back losses at Newcastle and Inter and a draw at Chelsea, Arsenal have now won four on the spin – scoring 15 times over those four games. Mikel Arteta will be disappointed to have won only three of seven on the road, but the absence of key creative influence Martin Odegaard is a mitigating factor.

Fulham’s average home xG figures sit at an excellent 2.14 for and 1.03 against. Arsenal’s respective numbers on the road are 1.63 for and 1.48 against.

Not too much in it on the xG numbers, which, if anything, favour the home side. However, Arsenal are a different attacking beast entirely with Odegaard knitting things together. Now finding their stride and representing a step up in class from Fulham’s previous home opponents, the Gunners look a good bet to cover a one-goal handicap.

• Best Bet - Arsenal -1 @ 31/20 with BetMGM

Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea, Sunday, 4:30 pm

The last of the weekend’s televised fixtures is all set up to be the most entertaining of all as Ange-ball clashes with a Chelsea side who have gone goal crazy in recent weeks. Sitting down in eighth, Spurs have work to do to realise their Champions League dreams. Chelsea, meanwhile, sit pretty in second following their excellent start to the season.

The Blues held the edge in this matchup last season, winning 4-1 here in a game Spurs ended with nine men and coming out on top 2-0 at Stamford Bridge. Maresca’s men have the rest advantage here, having battered Southampton on Wednesday, whereas Spurs travelled to Bournemouth on Thursday evening.

Spurs have posted some impressive results this season – notably heavy wins at the two Manchester clubs – but struggle for consistency. In their last two home fixtures, they have drawn with Fulham and lost to Ipswich Town.

Chelsea have been largely excellent on the road – winning five of seven, with the only blips coming in a narrow loss at Anfield and a draw at Old Trafford. A potent attacking force, they have scored three or more in three of those seven games.

Despite their up-and-down displays, Spurs' average home xG numbers sit at a relatively solid 1.94 for and 1.40 against. With respective figures of 2.37 for and 1.71 against. Chelsea are behind only Liverpool in the away xG table.

Spurs are capable of winning this if at their best, as evidenced in that ruthless display at the Etihad. However, the North Londoners are far from reliable. Instead, we will side with goals in the Sunday finale. With Spurs home games showing an average of 3.34xG and Chelsea away games returning an average of 4.08xG, over 3.5 goals looks fairly priced in what should be a cracker.

• Best Bet - Over 3.5 Goals @ 49/50 with BetMGM