Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase: Ten-Year Trends

Saturday rarely disappoints on the racing front, and this week is no exception. With the spectacular springtime highlights of the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National Meeting hurtling into view, Kempton takes centre stage on Saturday afternoon, with four races included on the live ITV menu.

The Grade 2 contests of the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, Pendil Novices’ Chase, and Adonis Juvenile Hurdle regularly provide a glimpse of a future star, but much of the betting interest revolves around the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase.

Held over the 3m trip and offering £150,000 in total prize money, this prestigious contest regularly attracts runners being readied for a tilt at Aintree rather than Cheltenham and includes Grand National heroes Rough Quest and Rhyme ‘N’ Reason on its roll of honour. Will the 2025 winner go on to claim the most famous chase of all? Only time will tell, but we have a cracking renewal to look forward to.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024 and pick out a selection of stats and trends which help identify the most likely winner.

Age of Winner: 7-9 the Ideal Bracket

This late winter highlight is open to runners aged five and older. However, none so young have won in the past ten years. At the other end of the spectrum, no horse older than nine prevailed in our sample. With all ten winners aged between 7 and 9, we will focus on that age bracket when zeroing in on our selection for the 2025 edition.

Proven Stamina a Plus

Viewed by many as a key trial for the Aintree Grand National, it makes sense that the Ladbrokes Trophy attracts runners who boast stamina as a strong suit. Six of the ten winners in our sample had previously scored over the 3m trip, and all ten had won over at least 2m5f.

Previous Handicap Chase Outings

This contest hasn’t been as vulnerable to the completely unexposed chaser as some other valuable events. Nevertheless, a relatively small number of previous outings in the handicap chase sphere appears to be an advantage. 7-9 looks to be the sweet spot, whilst only two winners had ten or more previous handicap chase runs to their name.

Highest Grade of Previous Outing

Looking for runners who have competed in an equal or, preferably, higher grade is an angle we like in these top handicap events and may be worth pursuing here. Whilst there were a couple of outliers over the past decade, eight of the ten winners had previously lined up at Listed level or above.

Positive Run Last Time Out a Plus

A positive recent outing can come with the downside of increasing a handicap mark. Nevertheless, runners arriving on the back of a solid effort appear to hold the edge. In the past ten editions, eight of the ten winners finished in the top three on their most recent outing, with the only two who didn’t having finished pulled up.

Something Up Their Sleeve from the Handicapper?

To land such a competitive event, a horse invariably needs to have a little in hand at the weights. One way to assess this is to compare the rating of the winner on the day with their previous career-high mark. As we can see, seven of the ten winners in our sample were racing off a mark equal to or below their previous high.

Trainers and Jockeys

Colin Tizzard and Neil Mulholland are the only two trainers with more than one win over the past ten years. Colin Tizzard is now retired, and Neil Mulholland does not hold an entry in 2025. With three wins, Sam Twiston-Davies has been the man to follow in the saddle. Sam rides Guard Your Dreams for his father, Nigel Twiston-Davies, this year.

Fate of the Favourite

This race has been a graveyard for favourite backers, with not one market leader getting the job done over the past ten years. That said, there have been few outright shocks, with eight of the ten winners returning a single-figure SP. Pilgrims Bay provided the biggest surprise when defying odds of 25/1 in 2017.

Other Stats

• 7 of 10 winners carried 11st or less on the day -
• King’s Theatre led the way amongst sires with three wins -
• 7 of 10 had run within the last 63 days -
• Only 3 of 10 had previously won at Kempton -

Hyland: There Can Be Only One

When applying our key trends to the 13 runners in the 2025 field, course and distance winner Beachcomber and the lightly raced Katate Dori come close to being an ideal fit. However, only one horse hits our age, distance, handicap, grade, finishing position, and rating profile.

That horse goes by the name of Hyland and hails from the yard of Nicky Henderson. Successful in four of his 15 starts over hurdles, he is already just one short of that tally following five starts over the larger obstacles. In three outings in 2024/25, he has hacked up at Cheltenham, scored in Listed company at the same track, and found only the extremely talented The Jukebox Man too good in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over this course and distance.

Henderson has yet to win the Grand National, but he may have solid claims with this stamina-laden sort who impresses with his jumping ability. The Aintree showpiece may be the ultimate objective, but the mount of Nico de Boinville looks worth backing to etch his name onto the Ladbrokes Trophy before heading to Merseyside.

• Recommended Bet - Hyland to win @ 3/1 with LiveScoreBet

Other Guides:

• King George VI Chase – Ten Year Trends
• Scottish Grand National: Ten-Year Trends Selections
  
• Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle: Ten-Year Trends