FA Cup Final: Betting Preview

With the domestic league season in the books for another year, it is time for the major Cup Finals to take to the stage. Manchester City still have the Champions League Final to look forward to, as they face Inter Milan on the 10th of June but, before that, the Citizens have the small matter of the FA Cup Final against big rivals Manchester United.

3pm on Saturday afternoon is the time, Wembley Stadium is the place for what promises to be a truly mouth-watering clash. But who will be lifting the trophy? Here we take a look at the game using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk, and pick out our best bets in the showpiece event.

What do the Previous League Meetings Tell Us?

Manchester City 6 – 3 Manchester United

A devastating display from City in the first clash back in October. Pep Guardiola’s men had this sewn up by halftime, taking a 4-0 lead into the break before both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden completed their hattricks after the interval. United did improve to effectively “Win” the second half, but the hosts had already taken their foot off the gas by that stage. The stats were, however, a little closer than the scoreline would suggest – City ahead 53.9%-46.1% on possession and 10-8 in terms of shots on target.

Manchester United 2 – 1 Manchester City

Revenge for the Red Devils at Old Trafford in January. United were much the better side in the opening period, creating a number of chances, but being unable to find a way through. They then looked set to pay the price when Jack Grealish headed City into the lead on the hour mark. Salvation came 12 minutes from time as Bruno Fernandes equalised following one of the most controversial offside calls of the season involving an interfering/not interfering Marcus Rashford. Four minutes later, Rashford himself finished from close range to complete the turnaround. The possession stats were more as you expect in this one, with City dominating 70.60% of the ball, but managing only one shot on target, compared to four for United.

The xG/Possession Prediction

The above table shows the average xG goals for, xG goals against, and possession for the two sides in the Premier League season. The final two columns then balance the possession stats to produce an adjusted xG prediction.

The two bets to leap out from these stats are Over 2.5 Goals and Manchester City to win the game. The favourites have a decent edge as it is, but it should be noted that they have outperformed their xG prediction by a considerable margin this season – largely due to the Erling Haaland factor.

Corners Prediction

Despite the above-average number of goals, the above table – which again uses predicted possession to adjust the average number of corners – suggests there may not be a deluge of corner kicks in the game. With many firms quoting the over/under at 10 or 11, we would favour the under here.

Bookings Points Prediction

Turning next to bookings and employing the same possession-based adjustments – this time using the logic that teams are more likely to pick up a card when they are out of possession – our model predicts a shade over 40 bookings points (10 points for a yellow, 25 points for a red). As such, the recommended bet is over 40 bookings points, with confidence enhanced by the fact that this is a derby fixture, and such games invariably feature a higher-than-average number of cards.

Bring It All Together in a Bet-Builder

Of the many Bet-Builder options out there, that which is available with Spreadex most closely meets our preferred betting options. Our recommended punt for those looking to enhance the entertainment is therefore the following Spreadex Bet-Builder.

• Manchester City to Win
• Over 2.5 Goals
• Under 11.5 Corners
• Over 39.5 Booking Points
• TOTAL ODDS: 7/2

Note that all markets are for 90 minutes only.