FA Cup Final: Best Bets for the Chelsea vs Manchester City Clash at Wembley Stadium

This weekend sees one of the classic fixtures of the English season as the oldest club competition in the world reaches its climax. As ever, Wembley Stadium provides the stage as the last remaining sides do battle beneath the famous arch in the FA Cup Final.

Always a fascinating spectacle, the 2026 edition promises to be a cracker as two of the most expensively assembled squads face off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon. Both Chelsea and Manchester City have spent vast sums, but it’s fair to say that such expenditure is only really working out for the side that plays in the lighter shade of blue.

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are warm favourites to master a Chelsea outfit who continue to defy any manager who attempts to turn them into a consistent unit. However, City also started favourites in 2024 and 2025, only to come up short against bitter rivals Manchester United and shock winners Crystal Palace. Will it be a case of third time lucky for Pep Guardiola’s men? Or can Chelsea produce a peak performance when it matters most? Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our best bets for one of the biggest fixtures of the domestic footballing year.

Chelsea vs City: FA Cup Record

With eight FA Cup wins, Chelsea are tied with Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur for third place on the all-time list – only Arsenal and Manchester United have lifted the famous trophy on more occasions than the Blues. The most recent of those victories came in 2018, when an Eden Hazard penalty was enough to edge past Manchester United.

Sitting on seven wins, City need just one more to draw level with Chelsea. Mastering Manchester United 2-1 in the 2023 final, they are now the first team in history to reach four consecutive finals.

Route to the Final

Chelsea

• Third Round - Charlton Athletic (A) – 5-1
• Fourth Round - Hull City (A) – 4-0
• Fifth Round - Wrexham (A) – 4-2 (a.e.t)
• Quarter-Final - Port Vale (H) – 7-0
• Semi-Final - Leeds United (N) – 1-0

Manchester City

• Third Round - Exeter City (H) – 10-1
• Fourth Round - Salford City (A) – 2-0
• Fifth Round - Newcastle United (A) – 1-3
• Quarter-Final - Liverpool (H) – 4-0
• Semi-Final - Southampton (N) – 2-1

With Chelsea managing to avoid Premier League opposition until the semi-final, the Londoners could scarcely have hoped for a more straightforward route to the final. Of their non-top-tier opponents, only Wrexham put up much of a fight before Chelsea finally came out on top in extra time.

City enjoyed an easy time in rounds three and four but faced tough draws in the Last 16 and quarter final. While a trip to St. James’s Park and a home clash with Liverpool looked tough on paper, City stamped their class all over both games. The Citizens actually faced more adversity in the semi-final against Championship outfit Southampton, needing two late goals to overcome the plucky Saints.

The League Meetings

Manchester City 1 – 1 Chelsea

With Calum McFarlane stepping in as caretaker manager for the first time this season, Chelsea played pretty well in the first game at the Etihad. The Blues fell behind to a Tijjani Reijnders strike just before the break but matched the hosts in terms of shots on target. With City unable to put the game to bed, Enzo Fernández rescued a point when prodding in at the back post in the 93rd minute.

Chelsea 0 – 3 City

With Liam Rosenior at the helm, the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge didn’t go anything like so well for Chelsea. Managing only 37% possession, they lost the total shot count 18-12 and the shots on target count 8-3. City’s dominance was fully reflected in the scoreline, thanks to goals from Nico O’Reilly, Marc Guéhi, and Jérémy Doku in the space of 17 second-half minutes.

Recent Form

Chelsea

• Manchester United (H) – 0-1
• Brighton (A) – 0-3
• Leeds United (N) – 1-0
• Nottingham Forest (H) – 1-3
• Liverpool (A) – 1-1

Manchester City

• Burnley (A) – 1-0
• Southampton (N) – 2-1
• Everton (A) – 3-3
• Brentford (H) – 3-0
• Crystal Palace (H) – 3-0

City’s Premier League hopes were dealt a serious blow in that 3-3 draw at Everton, but that was one of very few blips for a side who have lost only two of their last 23 fixtures in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet in 12 of those games, and scoring more than once in 18.

Chelsea’s abysmal form in 2026 saw Liam Rosenior lose his job. Ahead of this game, they have lost eight of their last eleven in all competitions. On the plus side, their two wins in that period came in this competition, and they stopped the rot with a 1-1 draw at Anfield last weekend.

The xG Score Prediction

Chelsea’s season has been so disrupted, with different managers attempting varying playing styles, that the xG numbers should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, they retain some value in assessing the efficiency of the side. After 36 Premier League games, Chelsea were averaging 1.95 xG for and 1.49 xG against.

In a far more settled campaign, City’s average numbers after 35 games sat at 2.14 xG for and 1.20 xG against. Combining these figures suggests a scoreline of Chelsea 1.58 – 1.82 Manchester City.

Recommended Bets

While anything can happen in a one-off final, it is hard to make a cohesive case for Chelsea. The Blues do have the advantage of a free midweek, whereas City were in action against Crystal Palace, but any edge for the Stamford Bridge outfit would appear to begin and end there.

With City consistently finding the net of late, and Chelsea shipping three or more against Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Everton, PSG (twice) and City themselves, we don’t see the Blues' defence holding up. City to score over 2.5 goals looks like a solid foundation for our FA Cup Final Bet Builder, and at 9/4 represents solid value as a single

The second angle we like to boost the odds is for the woodwork to be hit in the match. In last week’s home win over Brentford, City rained 25 shots down on goal. Unless they improve their recent defensive output, Chelsea could find themselves facing a similar blitz, and it only takes one to rattle the woodwork for this bet to land.

Finally, fresh from a brace at Everton, and having been played for only 30 minutes against Palace in midweek, we like Jeremy Doku’s chances of getting on the scoresheet. With Erling Haaland sure to occupy Chelsea’s chosen defensive partnership, the Belgian can create space cutting in from the left and find the back of the net.

• Manchester City to score over 2 goals
• Woodwork to Be Hit in the Match - Yes
• Jeremy Doku to Score Anytime

A £10 bet on the above Bet Builder returns £230 at LiveScoreBet.