Coral Eclipse Stakes Stakes Preview

This Saturday sees one of the most anticipated middle-distance contests of the flat campaign as Sandown lays on its showpiece event of the season. This 1m2f contest presents the first opportunity of the season for the current crop of Classic stars to tackle their elders and features several legendary names on its roll of honour, including Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars, and Enable.

The question on the lips of punters is, “Who will be joining that list of greats in 2023?”. Here we take a look at the big race, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk and attempt to close in on the most likely winner.

10 Year Age Trends

When looking at the past ten years' results, the Classic generation of three-year-olds holds the edge in terms of the number of wins – aided by the weight allowance they receive from the more fully developed older runners. However, when focussing on the strike rate, the five-year-old age group are out in front, having posted an impressive four wins from just 12 runners over this period. It is perhaps not surprising to see that those aged six and above have struggled to keep pace with the younger legs, but the poor performance of four-year-olds (just 1 win from 25 attempts) is most likely a statistical anomaly, with runners from that age group having won 55 of the 125 editions overall (44%).

Trainer Records Thin on the Ground

Of the five trainers on show, three have registered at least one previous win in the race. Aidan O’Brien sends out Paddington and Luxembourg and, should either prevail, the master of Ballydoyle will move ahead of fellow six-time winners Alec Taylor, Jr. and Sir Michael Stoute to become the most successful trainer in the history of the race. John & Thady Gosden bid to close the gap to O’Brien with the talented filly Emily Upjohn, whilst William Haggas will be hoping Dubai Honour can double his tally.

Super Sires have Proven Impact

Sires Galileo and Dubawi have proven to be the most reliable producers of top-class racecourses of the modern era. That trend has certainly been in evidence in this race, with six of the past ten winners having either Galileo or Dubawi in their immediate breeding line. Three winners were sired by Galileo or a son of Galileo; two were sired by Dubawi; and two were out of a Galileo mare. 2020 heroine Ghaiyyath had both factors working for her, in being by Dubawi and out of the Galileo mare Nightime.

Interestingly, the only runner to fit that trend this time around is the outsider West Wind Blows, who is sired by Teofilo - son of Galileo.

Proven Class at the Trip a Major Positive

There have been a few slightly surprising results in this race in recent times, but over the past ten years, the race has never fallen to a runner who hadn’t previously shown that they may be up to the task. Looking at the past ten renewals, nine winners had already won at Group 3 level or above over this distance. The only exception was 2019 champ Enable, who rocked up at Sandown with seven previous wins in Group 1 company, including both the English and Irish Oaks.

The only runner in this year’s field who has not yet landed a high-quality event over this distance or further is the current favourite Paddington, who will be stepping up from a mile for the first time. Dubai Honour and Luxembourg are the strongest fits, having already won in Group 1 company over this 1m2f distance.

Paddington up to the Task

The market has zeroed in on Paddington and Emily Upjohn as the most likely winners here, and of that duo, we favour the former. Already the top-rated runner in the field, he receives 7lbs and more from his rivals, making him around 10lb well in, according to the official handicapper. The question mark is, of course, the trip, but both his style of running and pedigree – by Siyouni, who sired 2021 winner St. Mark’s Basilica, and out of a mare in Modern Eagle, who won over a 1m4f – suggests that he ought to stay. With the Aidan O’Brien factor also in his favour, he can put that potent turn of foot to good use once more. With only six currently entered, an each-way punt offers little appeal, and a straight win bet on the jolly looks like the most likely route to profit.

• Best Win Bet - Paddington @ Evs with LiveScoreBet

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