Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2026 Trends: Which Runners Fit the Profile?

This weekend, one of the most anticipated contests of the global racing year takes place at beautiful Longchamp, Paris. “Ce n’est pas une course, c’est un monument.” – “It’s not a race, it’s a monument.” So goes the tagline for the magnificent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. 1m4f of the Grand Piste provides the stage for an international showdown, as the crème de la crème of the 1m4f division arrive at Longchamp on the first Sunday in October. Always an international affair, the 2026 edition has attracted a cosmopolitan field, with runners from France, Great Britain, Ireland, Germany, and Japan, all hoping for a slice of the €5 million in prize money on offer.

One of racing’s great spectacles, the Arc certainly doesn’t require a financial investment to entertain. However, as one of my favourite races of the year, I can’t resist taking a stab at the winner. In keeping with the theme of this series, here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, I turn to the trends for assistance. Looking back at the 26 editions of the race between 2000 and 2025, I highlight the key stats and trends and pick out my best bets for the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Fate of the Favourite

The past 26 editions have witnessed seven winning favourites. That’s a respectable percentage for such a competitive race, but still left favourite backers with a loss of £7.40 to £1 level stakes. The mighty Sea The Stars was the shortest-priced winner in our sample when coming home in front at 4/6 in 2009. At the other end of the spectrum, the German runner Torquator Tasso caused a huge 72/1 shock in 2021.

Winning Nation

Of the five nations represented in the 2026 Arc field, only Japan have never won the race. Unsurprisingly, the hosts boast the best recent record. The odds suggest the French have every chance of adding to their tally this year, with Francis-Henri Graffard’s defending champion Daryz currently heading the betting.

William Haggas’s Grand Prix de Paris winner Maltese Cross and Andrew Balding’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes heroine Kalpana lead the British charge, while French and English Oaks winners Diamond Necklace and Thundering On spearhead the Irish assault.

Germany relies on the outsider Bright Light, while Meisho Tabaru and Admire Terra are the latest to attempt to end the Japanese duck.

Age of the Winner

The Classic generation has held the edge in the current century, with 14 of the 26 renewals falling to three-year-olds. Six three-year-olds go to post in 2026, including the well-fancied Maltese Cross, Aidan O’Brien’s Diamond Necklace, and Joseph O’Brien’s Thundering On.

The clear standout among the four-year-olds on show is the reigning champ Daryz. Recent results suggest the five-year-old quintet of Admire Terra, Arrow Eagle, Friendly Soul, Kalpana, and Meisho Tabaru may be up against it.

Lucky Number 6

The average field size across the 26 editions in our sample was a shade under 16. With that in mind, a high draw – stall 9 or above – would appear to be a definite disadvantage.

While almost certainly a random aberration, stall 6 boasts an impressive recent record. Andrew Balding’s Kalpana emerges from the lucky box this time around.

The Key Trials

Of the official trials held three weeks before the big race, the Prix Niel and the Prix Vermeille have the best recent record, producing five winners apiece. Varandir (1st) and Benvenuto Cellini (5th) represent the Prix Niel form, with Friendly Soul (1st) arriving via the Prix Vermeille. The Irish Champion Stakes has also produced five recent winners, but the Leopardstown event isn’t represented this year.

Other runners arriving via one of the races in the above table include Kalpana and Minnie Hauk (Yorkshire Oaks) and Saddadd (Grosser Preis von Baden).

Arriving on a High

As the classiest 1m4f event in the world, it makes sense that the winner would have proven too good for the opposition in their most recent appearance. Recent results support this theory. Nineteen of the winners in our sample arrived on the back of a win, 22 finished in the top three last time, while not one finished outside the top six.

Other Factors

The above results are no more than you would expect for such a high-level race, but the numbers are pretty strong nonetheless. Time to take a look at how the 2026 field stacks up.

2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Tips: Thunder to Roar for O’Brien

There are a host of excellent trend fits in the 2026 line-up. The mares Kalpana and Friendly Soul are only let down by their age, while second favourite Maltese Cross and Saddadd may find their chance compromised by the draw. Varandir (no Group 1 win) and Benvenuto Cellini (unplaced last time) also scored 5 out of 6, but only two runners scored maximum points:

• Daryz
• Thundering On

Having been there and bought the Arc T-shirt, Daryz pretty much tips himself. A multiple winner at Longchamp and impressive in the Prix Foy last time, he is worth backing to defend his crown. Thundering On is also worth including each-way. The Joseph O’Brien filly hinted at brilliance when landing the Epsom Oaks and bounced back to form in Ireland last time. Of the others, Saddadd only narrowly misses the draw trend and could represent each-way value at a big price.

• Recommended Bet - Daryz to win @ 6/4 with Spreadex.
• Recommended Bet - Thundering On each way @ 8/1 with Spreadex.