Premier League Week 13: Best Bets

Almost a third of the way through the Premier League season, and, rather than being a closely fought battle, the fight for the top spot is becoming a one-horse race. Already eight points clear of Manchester City, Arne Slot’s Liverpool outfit get the chance to make a real statement as they host the defending champions in the pick of the Match Day 13 fixtures

Events at Anfield take centre stage, but there are no shortage of intriguing matchups elsewhere. Here, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk, we pick out our four best bets on another cracking weekend of action.

West Ham United vs Arsenal – Saturday, 5:30 pm

First stop, the London Stadium for this all-capital clash between the Hammers and the Gunners. Entering the season as the side expected to give Manchester City the most to do, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal find themselves nine points off the pace. West Ham are down in 15th, but arrive on the back of an impressive 2-0 success at Newcastle. Perhaps things are finally looking up under Julen Lopetegui.

West Ham initially struggled at home – losing each of their first three. Having said that, Aston Villa, Manchester City, and Chelsea were a tough trio to face so early. Recent games have been better, with wins over Ipswich and Manchester United, followed by a drab but solid draw with Everton. On a high following that success at St. James’s, they will be looking to build some momentum.

Following excellent wins at Villa and Spurs, Arsenal have failed to win in four on their travels – drawing at City and Chelsea but tasting defeat at Newcastle and Bournemouth. Concerningly, they have scored only once across their past three away fixtures.

So far at home, West Ham are averaging 2.17xG for and 2.16xG against. Arsenal’s respective figures on the road are 1.24 for and 1.53 against.

On the balance of form this season, Arsenal deserve to start favourites. However, general odds of 2/5 appear stingy for a side which has won only 2 of 6 on their travels and played in the Champions League in midweek. Not a game for huge stakes, but at 6/1, the Hammers look too big.

• Best Bet - West Ham to win @ 6/1 with BetGoodwin

Chelsea vs Aston Villa – Sunday 1:30 pm

This clash from Stamford Bridge may be significant in the race for the top four. Chelsea currently sit pretty in third but are only three points clear of Aston Villa in eighth. A win for the visitors will erase that deficit.

Villa held the edge in this matchup last season – winning 1-0 in this game and picking up a point in a 2-2 draw at Villa Park. Both sides were in European action in midweek. However, that may have more of an impact on the visitors, as Chelsea tend to make eleven chances for their Europa Conference League outings.

Despite their lofty league position, Chelsea have won only two of six at home and have conceded in all six games. Held to a draw by Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, and Arsenal, they are not yet a reliable proposition on home soil.

Villa won three of their first four on the road (West Ham, Leicester, and Fulham) but arrive on the back of successive defeats at Tottenham and Liverpool – suggesting they may struggle against a higher calibre of opposition away from Villa Park

Chelsea boast a solid home average of 2.14xG for and 1.37xG against. Villa's away numbers sit at 1.93xG for and 2.14xG against.

The figures, current form, and the midweek European demands all favour Chelsea. The hosts should pick up the points but may struggle to keep a clean sheet.

• Best Bet - Chelsea to win and Both Teams to Score @ 2/1 with Midnite

Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham – Sunday, 1:30 pm

Another all-London clash sees sixth-placed Spurs host a Fulham outfit who sit just one point back in ninth. It was honours even in this fixture last season – Spurs winning 2-0 here but losing 3-0 at Craven Cottage.

Spurs' habit of following a defeat with a win has continued in spectacular style in recent weeks. Having been stunned in a 2-1 home defeat to Ipswich, the side promptly travelled to the Etihad and battered Manchester City 4-0. Predicting Ange Postecoglu’s men seems to get tougher with each passing week.

Following a three-match winless streak, Fulham bounced back with wins against Brentford and Crystal Palace but arrive on the back of a 4-1 home hammering at the hands of Wolves.

Consistency isn’t the strong point for either of these sides. Perhaps the xG numbers may steer us in the right direction. At home, Spurs have registered an average of 2.10 xG for and 1.37 xG against. Fulham’s numbers on the road are similarly solid at 1.59 for and 1.26 against. Averaging those figures produces a predicted xG result of Tottenham 1.68 - 1.48 Fulham. That gives the hosts the edge, but not as much as odds of 4/5 imply. At 10/3, we like the draw in this one.

• Best Bet - Draw @ 10/3 with BetGoodwin

Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday, 4:00 pm

The best comes last as we head to what promises to be a raucous Anfield for this Super Sunday sizzler. Win this, and the Reds will move fully 11 points clear of Pep Guardiola’s men. There was nothing to split these sides last season, with this game and the reverse fixture ending in a 1-1 draw.

Both sides were in Champions League action in midweek but enjoyed contrasting fortunes. 3-0 up with only 15 minutes to play, Manchester City collapsed late against Feyenoord in a 3-3 draw. Liverpool, meanwhile, kept the good times rolling with an eye-catching home win over the reigning champions Real Madrid.

Liverpool have won five of six at home in the league, with the only blip being a shock 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest. Yet to concede more than once on their own patch, they have scored two or more in all five wins.

With wins at Chelsea, West Ham, and Wolves, and a draw at Newcastle, City started well on the road. However, their recent slump includes defeats at Bournemouth and Brighton in their two most recent away fixtures.

Liverpool sit second in the xG home table, with a per-game average of 2.17xG for and 1.09xG against. City’s numbers of 1.99 for and 1.57 against are fourth best in the away standings but below their usual standard.

At their best, these sides would be tough to split. However, that isn’t the case at present. City are yet to come close to finding a solution to the Rodri dilemma. The absence of their midfield anchor is seemingly creating chaos all over the pitch, for all that their attacking might will always give them a chance. Liverpool, meanwhile, are flying. A perfect five-from-five in the Champions League and beaten just once in the Premier League, their defence looks back to its best, whilst Mo Salah is in electrifying form at the other end of the pitch. At odds against, the hosts are solid value to pick up all three points.

• Best Bet - Liverpool to win @ 5/4 with Midnite