Paddy Power Gold Cup: Each Way Trends

Day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting features one of the most popular handicap chases of the season. Known for much of its lifetime as the Mackeson Gold Cup, this 2m4½f affair has enjoyed the backing of Paddy Power since 2020.

Won by champion chasers, Grand National heroes, and Cheltenham Gold Cup kings in the past, the £160,000 contest is among the highest-class handicaps of the year. With the 2025 field confirmed, 15 runners and riders will set out in pursuit of glory on Saturday afternoon.

As ever, we can’t resist attempting to solve this handicap conundrum and will turn to the trends for assistance. Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we examine the five results of the race between 2020 and 2024, focusing on the top three finishers, in an effort to identify the strongest each-way trends. Finally, we use our findings to select our best bet for the 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Six to Nine the Preferred Age Bracket

No horse older than nine has claimed the Paddy Power Gold Cup since 1975. That trend carries over into the recent top three finishers. All fifteen top three finishers in our sample were between six and nine years of age. Fourteen of the fifteen entries hit this trend, with the only exception being the ten-year-old Es Perfecto.

Going the Distance

In a hot handicap like this, it makes sense that proven stamina is an advantage. Recent results support this theory. Of the fifteen top three finishers in our sample, 14 had previously won over 2m4f or further. Eleven of the fifteen-runner field hit this trend.

Relatively Unexposed in Handicap Chase Sphere

In any handicap, runners with fewer handicap starts under their belts are more likely to have something up their sleeve from the handicapper. In the case of this race, fourteen of the fifteen placed horses in our sample had eight or fewer handicap chase starts to their name. Nine of the fifteen runners in the 2025 field hit this trend.

Grade 1 Experience a Positive Pointer

When assessing these top handicap events, we are always interested in those runners who have previously run at the highest level. That angle has proved fruitful when identifying placed runners in this event. Fourteen of the fifteen top three finishers in our sample had competed in Grade 1 company, either over hurdles, fences, or in a bumper. Interestingly, only four of this year’s field tick the Grade 1 box.

Top 6 Finish a Plus

Just over half of the top three finishers in our sample also made the podium last time out, while thirteen of fifteen finished in the top six on their latest start. Twelve of the 2025 line-up hit this trend.

The 2025 Field

Every horse in the field matches at least one of our key trends. However, the only runners to score a perfect five out of five are the two mares in the line-up – Panic Attack and Theatre Native.

Panic Attack represents Dan Skelton, who had begun the season in flying form, but experienced a terrible afternoon at Bangor on Wednesday, with five of his 10 runners being pulled up. That negative, plus the single-figure price, just sways us towards Theatre Native.

Henry De Bromhead saddled Let’s Go Champ to finish third twelve months ago, and we fancy Theatre Native to fare at least as well. A ten-length winner on her only previous visit to this track, she has hit the frame in five of six chase starts and had a solid prep run when third on her seasonal return at Limerick. Take the 20/1 with Bresbet, who are paying out each way on the first four.

• Recommended Bet: Theatre Native - each way @ 20/1 with Bresbet