Midlands Grand National: Ten-Year Trends

The mighty Cheltenham Festival draws to a close on Friday afternoon, but anyone suffering a racing hangover on Saturday need not look too far for a fix of competitive action – particularly if big field handicap chase contests float your betting boat.

The pick of the action comes from Staffordshire as Uttoxeter hosts its headline event of the National Hunt season. First held in 1939, the Midland’s Grand National boasts Cheltenham Gold Cup winners The Thinker and Synchronised on the roll of honour and invariably attracts a highly competitive field.

A marathon 4m2f is the trip for this stamina-sapping affair, with 25 fences standing between the field and a share of the £160,000 in total prize money. With the final field confirmed on Thursday morning, we now know the names of the 17 contenders who will lay it all on the line in one of the most demanding events of the racing year.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024 and pick out a selection of stats and trends which may help identify the most likely contenders and pick out our best bet for what promises to be a cracking contest.

Stamina a Must

There aren’t too many events held over 4m+ on the British calendar. However, recent results suggest we should focus on those who have shown at least some degree of stamina. Nine of the past ten winners had previously scored over at least 3m.

Focussing on such contenders in 2025 sets the elimination ball rolling by ruling out Passing Well.

8-9 Year Olds Hold the Edge

The Midlands Grand National is open to runners aged five and above, but no horse so young has ever come home in front. At the other end of the spectrum, 1969 champ Happy Spring is the oldest winner in the history of the race, having defied Father Time at 13 years of age. Recent results favour the eight and nine-year-olds, with eight of the past ten winners falling into that bracket.

Applying the age trend to the remaining runners reduces the field to 12.

Experience in the Grade an Advantage

These days, the Midlands Grand National is a Premier Handicap affair, which is the equivalent of a Grade 3 contest. Recent results suggest that a previous appearance in a similar calibre of race (or higher) is an advantage, with eight of ten winners having run at Listed level or above. Two runners fall down at this stage, bringing us down to ten.

Solid Performance Last Time a Plus

Recent results suggest it is tough to bounce back from a subpar display to claim the Midlands Grand National, with eight of the past ten winners arriving on the back of a top-three finish. Applying this trend to our remaining runners reduces the list of contenders to four.

Fate Of the Favourite

This has been a tough contest for punters to call, with just one winning favourite in the past ten years. Three winners returned a single-figure SP, and six were priced between 11/1 and 18/1. Potters Charm provided the biggest shock when coming home in front at odds of 20/1 in 2019. Overall, those backing the jolly over this period would have recorded a loss of £6 to £1 level stakes.

The Final Four

• Mr Vango, 7/1 with QuinnBet - Arrives seeking a hattrick following wins in the London National and Peter Marsh Handicap Chase. Up 8lb compared to the first of those successes but makes only his sixth handicap chase start and looks set to go well off top weight of 12st
• Apple Away, 9/1 with BetGoodwin - Has been knocking on the door of late, with runners-up finishes in her last three starts. 3lb below her career-high rating and represents the in-form Lucinda Russell team
• Val Dancer, 14/1 with BetGoodwin - This season’s Welsh Grand National hero, who followed up with a solid third in the Haydock Grand National Trial. Below his best on only previous outing here, but that came over hurdles, and the handicapper has dropped her 6lb for that Haydock effort.
• Fortunedefortunata, 10/1 with QuinnBet - Irish raider from the yard of Gordon Elliott who bounced back to form with a win over 3m3f at Punchestown. That form received a boost with the runner-up finishing a close fifth in the National Hunt Challenge Cup on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. He’s up 8lb for that win but 3lb below his peak hurdle mark and may yet do better over fences

Mr Vango makes plenty of appeal at the head of the weights but has hardly been missed by the market, and a 12st burden won’t make life easy. Apple Away makes marginally more appeal at the prices but is still a little short for our liking in a race of this nature.

Val Dancer is hard to fault on current form, and this has fallen to those who performed well in the Welsh Grand National twice in the past decade. However, the one for us is the Gordon Elliott-trained Fortunedefirtunata.

This one impressed us with his staying power and battling attitude last time out at Punchestown, and he may have more to offer on what will be only his second handicap start over fences. Elliott endured a quiet start to the Cheltenham Festival, but many of his runners performed with credit, and he is fancied to land this big Saturday pot.

• Recommended Bet - Fortunedefortunata each way @ 10/1 with QuinnBet