FA Cup Fourth Round: The All-Premiership Clashes

Following the midweek Carabao Cup Semi-Final action, the cup theme continues into the weekend football as the FA Cup reaches the fourth-round stage. Thirty-two sides remain in the oldest cup competition on the planet. By the end of the Exeter City vs Nottingham Forest on Tuesday evening, we will be down to our final 16 sides as Wembley edges ever closer.

As ever, the draw has thrown up a David vs Goliath clash, this time in the shape of Plymouth Argyle vs Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday afternoon. However, here, using analysis presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our best betting options in the four all Premier League matchups.

Manchester United vs Leicester City – Friday, 20:00

Sticking to fixtures between sides within the same division offers the advantage of enabling a direct comparison between the sides. In picking out our FA Cup Fourth Round Bets, we will consider the Last 6 Premier League form figures, the respective Home and Away win percentages of the sides, Both Teams To Score %, Over 25 Goals %, xG For, and xG Against.

Looking at the recent form figures of these sides, supporting either with confidence in the Match Result market appears fraught with risk. Taking odds on quotes about United, given their overall home win percentage, makes little appeal. Quotes of 8/1 for the away win are fair and may be worth a speculative punt, considering the continuing woes of the Old Trafford outfit.

However, the stand-out punt here is over 2.5 goals. Leicester tend to be involved in high-scoring affairs at the best of times, and with the focus on avoiding relegation, may relish the chance of playing with a little more freedom here. Add in the calamity-prone United rear guard and the fact that United home games are averaging 3.24 xG, and this looks set to go over the 2.5 mark. Odds of 4/9 represent a 69.23% chance, which is under Leicester’s overall figure and looks worth taking.

• Best Bet - Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/9 with Midnite

Everton vs Bournemouth – Saturday, 15:00

This Saturday 3 pm fixture is a little trickier given the stark upturn in Everton’s fortunes following the return of David Moyes. Having won only three of their first 19 Premier League fixtures, the Toffees have now won three of four under Moyes, going relatively goal crazy in home wins over Spurs and Leicester. The early evidence suggests that those low Over 2.5 goals and xG for averages may be trending upward.

Bournemouth arrive on the back of a defeat, but that came at the hands of Liverpool. Before that, the impressive Cherries were unbeaten in eleven Premier League outings. The first thought is that odds of 6/4 may underestimate the chances of Bournemouth on the road to a bottom-half side. However, we prefer Both Teams to Score. Bournemouth have an excellent overall xG for figure, which, combined with Everton’s improved attacking output, should hopefully see this bet land.

• Best Bet - Both Teams To Score @ 13/20 with Midnite

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea – Saturday, 20:00

How do you follow a 7-0 embarrassment at the hands of Nottingham Forest? For Brighton and Hove Albion, the answer is another clash with a top four outfit. The Seagulls are at least at home but will need to get that City Ground nightmare out of their system.

Everything again points to goals here, but we wonder if the hosts will be a little more defensively focused following last weekend's disaster. With BTTS and Over 2.5 priced in line with what the percentages suggest, we prefer to side with the away win.

The xG figures show that Chelsea are a significantly better side than Brighton, both offensively and defensively. With the Blues winning 50% of Premier League away fixtures, odds of 5/4 appear more than fair.

• Best Bet - Chelsea to win @ 5/4 with Midnite

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur – Sunday, 17:35

Our last stop takes us to Villa Park, where the hosts have had a free week, whereas Spurs were in Carabao Cup semi-final action against Liverpool on Thursday evening. The result of that Anfield clash is likely to have a significant bearing on the Spurs' mindset ahead of this, but with that unknown at the time of writing, we will stick to the stats.

Villa are a better side than Spurs on the xG stats, but not by as much as the current league table would suggest. Having won 50% of home games, odds on quotes for the hosts appear no more than fair. Our preference is over 2.5 goals at 4/9, suggesting a 69.23% chance. That’s bang in the middle of the individual averages for the sides, but the high xG figures offer encouragement.

• Best Bet - Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/9 with Midnite

A £10 fourfold on the above selections returns with £77.46 Midnite