How to Build Your Own Betting Model


football pitch model strategy

The universal betting formula is impossible to find simply due to the fact it does not exist.

Punters, however, can do their best to get as close as possible to create one by custom building their own betting model, tailored fit specifically for their needs and requirements. Creating a successful and fully functional betting model takes time and devotion but it’s bound to bring rewarding results in the end.

Once you get to know yourself as a punter and the market as a whole, a solid betting model will help you win in the long run. 

Definition of a Betting Model

Fitting a betting model as a term into a bracket is not easier than finding the universal working and winning betting formula but a definition exists. A betting model is basically a system which uses unbiased and objective statistical data to reveal value in betting selections that apparently offer little to no value to most of the bettors.

In order to acquire a profitable betting model, one needs to go through a thorough research in order to get familiar with ins and outs of the betting areas of their interest. Betting specialists around the globe have come to a somewhat universal pattern and a set of guidelines that are supposed to help punters custom make their own betting models.

Taking the time to go through six different steps will most certainly be a worthwhile effort so here’s what you need to do:

  • Set a target betting market
  • Analyse the stats
  • Gather your statistics
  • Betting model exceptions
  • Building the betting model
  • Testing & Analysis

The first step requires the punters to decide what will be the focus of interest. The players first need to determine the sport to bet on before moving on to a specific league or competition. Ultimately, choosing the right market to build your betting model around is equally if not even most important. The players are advised to narrow down their selections and focus on a single league and, preferably, on a single market – Over/Under goals, Both Teams to Score etc.

Setting up the two-part statistics section is arguably the most crucial aspect of a betting model. First, you need to do a statistical analysis and determine how far back do you want to go in terms of gathering the stats. Last matches will play a more important role compared to the numbers from the previous season. The obvious reason is that a team will go through a change in the midseason by selling and buying players, or others getting injured. Once analysed, the statistical data needs to be gathered which thankfully is the easiest part of the process.

The exceptions to the betting model should be derived from the statistical analysis as they include the absence of key players, possibly unfavourable weather and match conditions, a psychological aspect of a losing/winning team etc.

Here you come to the biggest part – creating the betting model. All you need here is the basic knowledge of Excel or any other program such as Maple, MATLAB or Freemat that will help you with handling all the data.

And ultimately, you may have a perfect model on paper but testing and analysis are what you need to make sure your model is functional. This gives you a chance to make any necessary repairs before you dig knee-deep into the betting world with your new model.

Best 10 New Bookmakers

£100 SIGN UP HERE

New players only | Maximum bonus is 100% up to £100 | Min. deposit is £20 | No max cash out | Wagering is 35x bonus | Maximum bet with an active bonus is £5 | Skrill & Neteller deposits excluded | Cashback applies to deposits where no bonus is included | T&C's apply

£50 SIGN UP HERE

Full T&Cs apply. New UK customers only. Bet should be either a single or multiple bet, start at £10, and have 1.9 or greater odds. 5 Free bets include: 1 x £10 Free bet on horse racing, 1 x £10 Free bet on football, 2 x 10 Free bet in-play, 1 x £10 Free bet Acca. Max payout – £500. 7 day expiry. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org.

£25 SIGN UP HERE

T&Cs apply. 18+ New customers only. You must place 3 x £10 sportsbook bets to qualify. Money back as free bets up to £25. Must use code welcome25afs when creating an account.

0 SIGN UP HERE
£10 SIGN UP HERE

New customers sign up with code "b20g10". Deposit £20 or more and place a £20 bet at min odds 2.0. Get a £10 free bet. Free bets expire after 7 days. Full terms apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

£111 SIGN UP HERE

#AD 18+, New customers only, min deposit £10, wagering 60x for refund bonus, max bet £5 with bonus funds. Free Spins bonus has x40 wagering. 23 free spins on registration (max withdrawal is £100). 100% refund bonus up to £111 + 77 spins on 1st deposit. No max cash out on deposit offers. Eligibility is restricted for suspected abuse. Ecopayz, Skrill or Neteller excluded. Full T&Cs apply.

£25 SIGN UP HERE

Applies to new UK/IE customers only. Place your first bet at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater and if it loses, get a free bet equivalent to 50% of your first bet stake, to a maximum value of £25. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. Full T&Cs apply.

£10 SIGN UP HERE

T&Cs: New customers only. Max. one £10 free bet. Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater. Paid as bonus token with min. 4/5 (1.80) Odds req. T&CS APPLY. 18+

£20 SIGN UP HERE

New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets, stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of 20, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings from the free bet. Max conversion: £200. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full terms apply

£100 SIGN UP HERE

New UK/IE customers . Place your first Football bet as an Accumulator (minimum four selections) and AK Bets will boost the return by 25% in the form of a Free Bet up to a value of £100. 18+ BeGambleAware.org."