How To Bet On The Draw: The Fibonacci System
The Fibonacci numbers are the sums of the "shallow" diagonals (shown in red) of Pascal's triangle.
Elaborate betting systems and their fancy names are not particularly tempting choices especially for novice bettors, but the more experienced punters claim they can make big profits in the long run.
In order to be able to sustain a progressive betting system such as the one in question here – the Fibonacci System – players need to make sure they have a solid starting point and a significant bank role to follow through the betting model we will here on explain in detail.
The Fibonacci system revolves around the presumption that draws are the most difficult outcomes in football to predict and therefore should be exploited with a progressive method that is built upon two essential rules.
- The first rule states that you should bet only on matches that offer draw at betting odds higher than 2.618.
- The second rule guides you through the staking process which should follow the Fibonacci sequence of numbers – 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and so on.
The Fibonacci system is based on a theory from 1989 and it requires players to stick with the progression staking plan to overcome their previous losses, which initially requires a solid and a quite healthy bankroll to work with in order to sustain the sequence.
How Does the Fibonacci System Works in Practice?
Speaking from a statistical point of view, a draw is not that uncommon result in a football match. Statistical data from the Premier League back in 2012 report that nearly 25% of all games during one season end in a draw.
What this means in practice is that one in four games will end in a draw, further implying that an ideal Fibonacci streak would bring wins at the fourth number in the sequence – 3. The winning stake is, therefore, £7 – the amount which includes all of the three previous losing stakes £1, £1 and £2.
With all odds over the required minimum of 2.618 and at the average value of nearly 4.2, the average winnings on a Fibonacci sequence would stand at £12.6, with a profit worth £5.6.
Looking at the Fibonacci system from a season-long perspective, a theoretical profit for the player out of 380 games would stand at nearly £1.800 all of which would be pocketed on an initial £1 stake.
Fibonacci System Limitations
Needless to point it out, but no betting system is perfect and Fibonacci strategy comes with a couple of drawbacks of its own.
The most obvious one has been highlighted in the introduction of this article and it deals with the fact players need to have a huge betting balance at their disposal in order to cover up for potential holes. It does not come that often, but the occurrence is nor that rare as well – streaks without a draw will occur to frustrate you.
Manchester United went 20 games without a single stalemate back in 2008/09 which would have left a Fibonacci bettor with nearly a £11,000 bet on that final game in a sequence, which is a huge stake for a system that results in not that significant winnings.
Another obvious problem is the fact many games are played at the same time and the players would find it impossible to follow them up in sequence. Betting on individual teams is the solution to this problem, but it opens the potential issue we have just addressed above.