Availability Bias Explained & How to Avoid it
Betting on football as one of the most commonly bet on sport of them all is a great example to show that betting – as a process in general – involves emotions.
You can have the best betting strategy possible or the deepest and most insightful knowledge of a team’s performance, form and squad status, but it will all count to nothing when brain meets the heart at that particular moment just when you are about to confirm the selection.
The heart has a funny way to mess up with your brain and disrupt your betting thinking process. Letting emotions get in a way is never a good idea in betting as they will often trick you into believing that likelihood of an outcome is much higher than it actually is.
It is the matter of the availability bias and reshaping of your intuitive perception.
What is Availability Bias?
To put in a definition and confine it to psychological terms – the Availability Bias is most directly described as a heuristic notion.
A notion that makes people put weight and significance to their decision-making simply based on their most recent memories and available information rather than a well-thought and supported facts and proofs.
Why Does Availability Bias Happen?
The human mind is programmed in such a way as to always provide us with answers to different questions regardless of the subject.
What your brain will do here is that it will replace a difficult question with an easier one in order to deal with an immediate situation or a problem. It is not necessarily a trick, but rather a natural instinct that makes your break react in pressure situations.
But when it comes to betting, such brain function can be more detrimental than beneficial.
Faced with a dilemma dealing with a question of whether Liverpool can beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, your brain will give you an answer that finds solutions in your most recent memories of Liverpool instead of answers in terms of probability.
Why is Availability Bias a problem in Betting?
The aforementioned probability is arguably the most important thing in betting as evaluating it correctly provides you with best chances of securing a win.
When you face betting odds – on Liverpool in our example – they do not represent the actual chance of Reds winning and question you want to ask yourself is whether Liverpool really have 65% chance of winning a match against Chelsea.
Your intuitive mind will try to find alternatives to go around this difficult question, but there is a way to deal with it.
How to Avoid Availability Bias?
Making your heart work for your brain is crucial in order to defeat the Availability Bias. All you have to do is to be rational with betting decisions and not allow your heart block your view when you are looking for value in bets in front of you.
Presented odds can often represent betting operators’ availability bias which happen with square money in big-profile betting events such as the one we have in our example.
Pick reasons, back them with evidence and find actual probabilities for an even before you actually submit your final bet. That is how you beat it the best.
Best 10 New Bookmakers
 |
£30 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
18+. New Players Only. Min deposit £20. Offer is a £30 free bet when you bet £10 in one single transaction, on any sports at odds of 2.00 or higher. Free bet credited upon qualifying bet settlement. Free Bet can be redeemed on any sports market and used in one single transaction. Winnings credited as cash and immediately withdrawable. Free bet expires 7 days after being credited. Free Bets non withdrawable. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Affordability checks apply. Terms apply. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org. |
||
 |
£30 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
18+ New customers only. Place a £10+ bet at min odds 1/1 (2.0) within 14 days of sign-up. Get £30 in Free Bets, valid for 7 days on selected bets only. Free stake not returned with winnings. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org |
||
 |
£20 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
New verified customers only. Opt-in required. Deposit £20 and earn £1 of Free Bet value for every £1 staked on Bet Builders, with each qualifying stake counting towards a free bet builder reward, at combined odds of 2.0 (1/1) or greater. Min Reward: £1 Free Bet / Max Reward: £20 Free Bet. Cash in or claim within 48 hours of promo end. Free Bets expire 7 days after claim. 18+ GambleAware.org |
||
 |
£25 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
New customers only. Bets placed on sports at odds of 2.50 or more to qualify. Bets must be placed 25 hours within registration. £25 free bets must be wagered on sports. Full terms below. Gambling can be addictive, play responsibly 18+ |
||
 |
£10 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
18+. New GB customers referred by selected marketing partners only. Activate the sports welcome offer on your first deposit and opt in to sports bonuses and marketing. Deposit £10+ and place a £10+ sports bet at odds of 2.00+. £10 Free Bet credited after the qualifying bet settles. Use within 24 hours at odds of 2.00+. Free bet stake not returned. Voided, cashed-out or partially cashed-out bets do not qualify. Cash funds are used before free bets. Cannot be combined with the casino welcome offer. Full T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. |
||
 |
£20 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
New online customers only. Register and place a £/€5+ first bet at 1/1 (2.0)+ on sports or racing within 7 days. Get a £/€10 Tote Credit and £/€10 Free Sports Bet within 48 hours of settlement. Voided/non-runner bets don’t qualify. Rewards expire in 7 days. 18+. One per customer. Selected customers only. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. |
||
 |
£30 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
*New members only. £10+ bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals) at 1.5 min odds, settled within 14 days. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days on sportsbook only. 2x£5 Free Bets for Bet Builder only. Stake not returned. T&Cs + deposit exclusions apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware®. 18+ |
||
 |
£30 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
New customers place your first bet of £10 at minimum odds of 1/1 on any sports market within 7 days of registering. Get £20 in ACCA Free Bets (2x£10 Acca Free bet (2+ selections, pre-match or in-play/live, min odds per leg 2/5 (1.4), max payout £50) . Full terms apply. 18+ begambleaware. Please gamble responsibly. |
||
 |
£30 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet up to £40 (min. £20) via mobile or app on any football (odds 1/1+) within 7 days of registration. Get up to £40 in free bets on selected markets, which expire in 7 days. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly |
||
 |
£100 | SIGN UP HERE |
|
*New UK/IE customers . Place your first Football bet as an Accumulator (minimum four selections) and AK Bets will boost the return by 25% in the form of a Free Bet up to a value of £100. 18+ BeGambleAware.org." |
||
