Who will finish highest in the Premier League next season?

Frank Lampard’s Coventry City the most likely promoted team to ‘do a Sunderland’ but Southampton have a stronger chance of staying up than Ipswich Town

Frank Lampard’s Coventry City are the promoted team most likely to survive and thrive in the Premier League next season according to analysis from NewBettingSites.uk. Southampton are rated as the club with the second-highest chance of staying up should they beat Hull City in the play-off final, with Sergej Jakirović’s regarded as the team most likely to go straight back down. Coventry City have been given a 44% chance of staying up next season, the best of the four clubs who could feature in the Premier League in 2026/27. Next is Southampton on 37% just ahead of Ipswich Town on 32% with Hull City expected to perish with only a 20% chance of surviving should they beat the Saints at Wembley.

Who has the highest chance of matching Sunderland’s points total?

Sunderland have been one of the stories of the season in the Premier League beating early expectations that the Black Cats would finish last to rise up the table and even threaten the European places. Of the four sides who could be promoted to the topflight next season, Coventry have been given the best chance to ‘do a Sunderland’ next year, although only just. Lampard’s side lead the way with a 4% chance to secure 48 or more points next season ahead of Ipswich Town and Southampton who have each been given a 2%, while Hull City have been given only a 0.5% chance to follow in the footsteps of Regis Le Bris and his team.However, it was Sunderland who last year went into a new Premier League season as the side assumed to be unable to compete. Maybe that magic could rub off on Hull as the underdogs this time round?

Who will finish highest next season?

Let’s assume Hull City do beat Southampton at Wembley. In this scenario, Coventry City are given a 65% chance of being the side to finish ahead of the other promoted clubs in 2026/27, followed by Ipswich Town who have been given a 25%. Hull would have just a 10% chance to be the top dogs among the teams coming up from the Championship. If Southampton prosper at Wembley, the numbers shift slightly. Coventry’s chances reduce down to 62% along with Ipswich who see their own chance of finishing ahead of the promoted sides fall to 22%. Southampton, meanwhile, would be given a 16% to finish above the other new arrivals.

Can all three promoted teams stay up next season?

The short answer is yes, but it looks unlikely regardless of who wins at Wembley. A combination of Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City are given a 2.82% chance of all staying up next season. If it’s Southampton who win the play-off final, that chance grows to 5.21%.

Methodology

To forecast the chances of the promoted teams in the Premier League for the 2026/27 season, NewBettingSites first created a predictive model to simulate how each club could fare in the top flight next season. More than 20,000 simulations were collated into the final table above, taking into account the two different scenarios depending on the outcome of the Championship play-off final.

Data was aggregated from FBRef and the official Premier League website, with team strength quantified using an Elo-style rating system, and recent and historical trends across betting markets included as another set of variables. An element of randomness was also included to take into account freak results and the ebbs and flows of a season, to try and produce a more realistic model. Social media sentiment analysis was also used to influence team ratings based on fan and media confidence in each team.

Finally, these results were collated into the above table.