Public Gambles or in the Know Professionals? How to Spot the Difference

Sunday 7 February 2021



No matter what sport you bet on, from time to time you will see a selection dramatically reduce in price. We are not talking small moves from 3/1 to 2/1 here, we are talking major gambles that make huge changes to the whole betting market. Sometimes this will just be public money, but other times it may be professional money. If you can spot which one is taking place, it will help you decide whether to get involved or not. 

Here are some examples of why a selection may decrease in price, and what the reason behind it is.

Popular Tipsters

This could be classed as both professional and public money, and it is certainly the most common reason for a market moving. Whether this is a big horse racing tipster who publishes tips for free in a newspaper or a greyhound tipster who charges a monthly fee to his followers, the money is coming from a professional source, but it is the public that are putting down their cash. On a sport like greyhound racing these gamblers can have huge effects and it is not uncommon to see a dog tipped up at 5/1, and be as short as just 2/1 minutes later. Few bookmakers offer early prices on greyhound racing, which is something that can influence how quick the price changes, and this is something else to note when looking at a gamble.

Professional Form Readers

There are some people out there that stake thousands of pounds on a horse race, and put a lot of time and effort into studying the form. They are more likely to get involved near the off of a race, they don’t have any subscribers to think about like tipsters, so they can leave it until the very last second to make sure everything has gone without hiccup pre-race. These people are often the reason for late gambles, and these can often involve a lot more money than morning gambles. When we are near the start of a race, every bookmaker will have prices available so these punters can spread their money round, meaning each bookmaker isn’t taking as big a hit as they would in the morning if only a few had priced the race up.

Can Bookmakers Stage Gambles?

This is something that has been mentioned in the past, and it is something that may happen. Bookmakers know that when a selection is gambled on, it alerts people’s attention to that runner and they may follow in on the gamble. Sometimes if a bookmaker wants to be against a horse, they could shorten that runner without actually taking a bet on it. This is to try and convince others that a gamble is taking place, hoping that they follow suit and put money on. These fake gambles are not easy to spot, but there has been a lot of talk about bookmakers doing this and it wouldn’t be a surprise to know that this tactic exists.

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