Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Best Bets


Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Best Bets


The eyes of the footballing world may be shifting their focus to the 14th of June and the beginning of Euro 2024 - but we still have one club fixture to tick off the 2023/24 fixture list…and it’s a big one, as Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund head to Wembley Stadium for the Champions League Final on Saturday evening.

Will the trophy fall under the spell of the most successful side in Champions League history yet again, or can a battling Dortmund side upset the odds one last time in a tournament where few expected them to make it this far?

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our best bets for one of the most anticipated and most watched fixtures of the season.

Real vs Dortmund: Champions League Record

Kings of Europe on no fewer than 14 occasions – including eight times in the Champions League era – Real Madrid are way out in front at the head of the all-time table, with twice as many wins as nearest pursuers AC Milan. With 14 wins from 17 Finals, the boys from the Bernabeau boast a stellar record once reaching the final hurdle

Unsurprisingly, Dortmund sit some way behind Real Madrid, but they have won the tournament – that success coming when beating Juventus 3-1 in the 1997 final. Since then, the closest they have come was when losing 2-1 to Bayern Munich in the all-German final of 2013.

Route to the Final

Real Madrid

  • Group Stage - Group C with Napoli, Braga, and Union Berlin. Topped the Group with six wins from six
  • Last 16 - RB Leipzig – 2-1 (agg)
  • Quarter Final - Manchester City – 4-4 (Real win on Penalties)
  • Semi Final - Bayern Munich – 4-3 (agg)

Borussia Dortmund

  • Group Stage - Group F with PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle United. Topped the Group with 11 points from six games
  • Last 16 - PSV Eindhoven – 3-1 (agg)
  • Quarter Final - Atlético Madrid – 5-4 (agg)
  • Semi Final - PSG – 2-0 (agg)

Borussia Dortmund looked to have been handed a tough assignment in Group F, and - with sides from that section making up 50% of the semi-final lineup – that assessment appears vindicated. Relatively comfortable against PSV, they just about edged a non-vintage Atlético outfit, but to shut out PSG over 180 minutes is no mean feat.

Real started as red-hot favourites in Group C and duly won in a canter. However, things became tougher in the knockout stages. RB Leipzig put up stern resistance; penalties were required to oust the defending champions Manchester City, whilst they appeared on the brink of elimination before Joselu’s second-half interventions vs Bayern.

Head to Head Record

Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund have met 14 times, with all those clashes coming in the Champions League. Real leads the head-to-head matchup with six wins, compared to three for Dortmund, and five draws. The most recent meeting came in a 2017/18 Group stage encounter – Real winning 3-2 at the Bernebéu.

Recent Form

Real Madrid

  • Real Betis (H) – 0-0
  • Villarreal (A) – 4-4
  • Deportivo Alaves (H) – 5-0
  • Granada (A) – 4-0
  • Bayern Munich (H) – 2-1

Borussia Dortmund

  • Darmstadt (H) – 4-0
  • Mainz 05 (A) – 0-3
  • PSG (A) – 1-0
  • Augsburg (H) – 5-1
  • PSG (H) – 1-0

We wouldn’t read much into Real Madrid’s starkly contrasting draws with Villarreal and Real Betis, as Carlo Ancelotti’s men already had the La Liga title comfortably sewn up by that stage. With an average of three goals per game across those five fixtures, their fearsome attack appears to be ticking along nicely. Barring a collapse on the road to Mainz, Dortmund have also been in solid form and, with three clean sheets in five, will hope to at least make Real work to break their resistance.

The xG Score Prediction

Real Madrid’s xG stats per game for the 2023/24 Champions League season sit at 1.74 xG for and 1.49 xG against. For Dortmund, those numbers are 1.37 xG for and 1.59 xG against. Combining those figures produces an xG scoreline of Real Madrid 1.67 – 1.43 – a lot closer than we anticipated.

In real terms, the Spanish Champions have scored an average of 2.17 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.25. Dortmund’s for and against figures are 1.42 for and 0.75 against. For purposes of comparison, combining those numbers produces a predicted score of Real Madrid 1.46 – 1.34 Borussia Dortmund - even closer.

Recommended Bets

Arriving on the back of a 47-game unbeaten run in 90 minutes, we find it very hard to oppose Real Madrid, with the 14-time winners fully deserving of their status as favourites.

Both the xG figures and actual goal figures suggest a closer encounter, but for us, the stand-out stat is that Dortmund have conceded only 0.75 goals per game, despite xG suggesting they would concede 1.59 - suggesting Dortmund have benefitted from a lack of clinical finishing from their opponents. It is difficult to imagine Real Madrid being so generous.

Overall, we expect Real to be more than a goal too good for Dortmund. However, we do fancy the Germans to at least get on the scoresheet; Dortmund are averaging over a goal a game on xG and actual goal figures, whilst Real are conceding over a goal a game on both metrics. Combining all of the above produces the following recommended Bet Builder.

  • Real Madrid to Win
  • Over 3.5 Goals
  • Both Teams to Score

A £10 bet on the above Bet Builder returns £46 with LiveScoreBet. For those wishing to enhance the odds, adding Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham or Rodrygo to score anytime results in respective returns of £67.50, £75, and £80.

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