2025 John Of Gaunt Stakes: Ten-Year Trends and Best Bets

This weekend, the pace of the 2025 flat campaign relaxes ever so slightly. Seven days on from the Irish Guineas meeting and a week before the Derby rolls onto the Epsom Downs, the Merseyside venue of Haydock takes centre stage.

A quartet of Haydock events feature on the ITV Racing menu, the pick of which sees a field of older runners tackle the specialist 7f trip in the 2025 John Of Gaunt Stakes. First run in 1976 and named in honour of the first Duke of Lancaster, the race earned Group 3 status in 2008 and awards £85,000 in prize money.

Always a popular betting heat with punters, we will turn to the trends in our effort to unearth this year’s winner. Here, we look back at the ten editions between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020), outline the most eye-catching trends, and pick out our best bet for the 2025 John Of Gaunt Stakes.

Fate of the Favourite

With four outright or co-favourites winning over the past ten editions, the market leader boasts a solid recent record in this event. However, backing the jolly hasn’t provided a road to riches, with a £1 level stakes punt on the favourite returning a profit of only 75p. That said, the market rarely gets it too far wrong, with nine of the ten winners in our sample returning a single-figure SP. The big shock came in 2014 when the eight-year-old Penitent rolled back the years to score at 33/1.

106+ Rating Required

The 115-rated Home Of The Brave (2016) was the pick of the winners in our sample, with the subsequent superstar, Kinross (2021), the low man on the totem pole, having arrived with a rating of “only” 106.  The average rating of the winner dropped by 3lbs over our sample. With all ten winners rated 106 or above, we will use this as our first key stat.

7f Specialists

The 7f trip demands a unique blend of speed and stamina, with winners regularly being quick but not quite fast enough to thrive over 6f, and having a degree of staying power but not enough to be at their best over a mile. Given those demands, it makes sense that a previous win over the distance would be an advantage in this Group 3 affair. The results in our sample support that theory, with nine of the ten winners arriving with at least one 7f win to their name.

Proven in Pattern Company

2015 winner Cable Bay arrived with only a Class 4 win to his name. However, he was the exception to the rule. Whilst only three winners had scored at this level or higher, nine of ten had at least hinted at an ability to do so with a win at Listed level or above.

Age Of Winner

The John Of Gaunt Stakes is open to runners aged four and older. Shock winner Penitent was the oldest winner in our sample at eight years of age, whilst Absolutely So was seven when coming home in front in 2017. However, every other winner fell into the 4-6 age bracket.

Group 1 Experience

Whilst none of the winners in our sample had previously won in Group 1 company, the majority had been deemed worthy of a shot at a top-tier event earlier in their careers, with eight of the ten winners having at least one Group 1 outing to their name.

Stamina Considerations

Kinross claimed this prize having been off the track for 107 days in 2021, while 2022 winner Pogo arrived on the back of a 63-day break. However, every other winner had appeared at the track within the last 35 days, suggesting race fitness is an advantage.

Betting Recommendations: Minnie to Master Talented Stablemates

Only one horse scores a maximum of six points on our key stats, making the selection of the best trends-based win bet a relatively straightforward task.

Hailing from the excellent Owen Burrows operation, the Too Darn Hot colt, Alyanaabi, boasts career form figures of 4121 over this 7f trip. Significantly, the most recent of those wins came last time out in the Spring Trophy over this course and distance, when comfortably on top at the line. That rated a noteworthy effort, considering he ducked right and bumped a rival at the start. His efforts in defeat also read well, with his fourth coming when a little unlucky to finish no closer to the talented Rosallion and his runners-up effort behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst Stakes. The market hasn’t missed this four-year-old, but he looks like the most likely winner in our eyes.

For an each-way selection, we will focus on the trio of runners who score five out of six on our stats, namely:

• Audience, 3/1 with BetMGM - Enjoyed an excellent 2024, with a Group 1 win in the Lockinge Stakes and a Group 2 success over this trip in the Lennox Stakes. Yet to race at Haydock, but a recent spin out in Meydan should have blown away the cobwebs. Respected, but not much of an each-way price.
• Kikkuli, 14/1 with BetGoodwin - One of the least exposed runners in the field with only eight career starts to his name and, therefore, one of the most open to improvement. Form figures of 212644 over 7f, including a narrow second in the Jersey Stakes and a ½l fourth in the Hungerford Stakes. 2l behind Alyanaabi in the Spring Trophy.
• Quinault, 20/1 with BetGoodwin - This Stuart Williams star has displayed stunning progression over the past two seasons – climbing from a mark of 59 in April 2023 to his current rating of 107. A dual winner at this trip, but both of those efforts came in handicap company.

With Audience not offering much in the way of value and Quinault yet to suggest he can cut it in this grade over this trip, the potential improver Kikkuli rates the obvious each-way call at a double-figure price.

• Recommended Bet - Alyanaabi to win @ 7/2 with Quinnbet
• Recommended Bet - Kikkuli each way @ 14/1 with BetGoodwin