King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Ten-Year Trends and Betting Tips

Summer is a hot time on the racing front. Royal Ascot and four of the five Classics may be in the books for another year, but fans still have much to look forward to. Next week, the Qatar Goodwood Festival arrives amidst a sea of Panama hats, while, on Saturday, we have one of the biggest and best 1m4f events of the domestic season.

Celebrating its 75th anniversary in 2025, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes first strode onto the Ascot stage in 1951. Racing luminaries Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Shergar, Dancing Brave, and Galileo all feature on the roll of honour for a race offering £1.5 million in prize money.

Given the prestige and significant financial incentive, the 1m4f Group 1 affair invariably attracts a stellar cast of talent as the three-year-olds tackle their elders. With the clock ticking down towards the 2025 edition, five runners remain in contention in what looks set to be a cracking renewal.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we look at the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024, pick out the standout stats and trends, and identify our best bet for the 2025 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Fate of the Favourite

Four of the ten editions in our sample were won by the market leader, with the wonder mare Enable responsible for three of those victories. A 40% strike rate is above average but still wasn’t enough to return a profit. Those placing a £1 level stakes punt on the favourite received a loss of £2.15. Eight of the ten winners returned a single figure starting price (SP), with the 25/1 chance Goliath causing the biggest shock in 2024.

Going the Distance

Regularly attracting runners from the Epsom and Curragh Classics, Coronation Cup, and Hardwicke Stakes, the King George is no place for runners who haven’t shown an ability to stay this far. All ten of the winners in our sample had at least one previous win over 1m4f.

118+ Rating Preferred

Enable topped the ratings over this period, having arrived with a mark of 128 ahead of the 2019 edition. The 113-rated Goliath was the low horse on the totem pole, while the average rating of the winner was 121.30. Nine of the ten winners had a rating of 118 or above.

Top Two Finish A Plus

Recent results suggest that a positive performance on their most recent racecourse appearance is a definite advantage. Half of the ten winners also scored last time out, while nine of the ten finished first or second.

Recent Run an Advantage

In recent years, race fit runners have dominated the King George, with no winner arriving on the back of an extensive break. An absence of 31-50 days appears to be the sweet spot, while nine of the ten winners had appeared within the last 20-50 days.

Proven in the Grade

The fact that Goliath had previously won at no higher than Group 3 level no doubt contributed to those 25/1 odds in 2024. However, the French raider was the exception in our sample. The nine other winners had scored at Group 2 level or above, while eight of the ten had landed a top-tier Group 1 contest.

Other Factors

• All ten winners were between three and six years of age.
• Five of the ten winners had previously won at Ascot.
• Five of the ten winners were sired by Galileo or one of his sons.

Betting Selections: Jan Brueghel to Paint a Winning Picture

All five remaining runners perform reasonably well on our key trends. Our analysis agrees with the betting market in rating the 100/1 chance Continuous the least likely to prevail. The 2023 St. Leger winner is a talented performer on his day but has been some way below those levels of late and may be booked for pace-making duties here.

Going in the Juddmonte silks, Kalpana attempts to follow in the hoofprints of her fellow Juddmonte mare Enable. However, she falls just short of the preferred rating standard. All of which leaves us with a straight choice between the three 5/5 trends runners:

• Calandagan - Hailing from the yard of last year’s winning trainer, Francis-Henri Graffard, this four-year-old Gleneagles heads to Ascot having bagged a first career Group 1 in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Lost out by ½l to Jan Brueghel in the Coronation Cup, but he wasn’t helped by lugging down the Epsom camber that day. His only previous outing over this course and distance resulted in a six-length demolition of the field in the 2024 King Edward VII Stakes. This grandson of Galileo is a very strong contender.
• Jan Brueghel - Yet to race at Ascot but earns an additional point as a son of the great Galileo. His only defeat in six career outings came when in need of the run on his seasonal return at the Curragh. The 2024 St. Leger hero is a fierce competitor, a strong stayer at the distance, and may have this set up to suit by trailblazing stablemate Continuous.
• Rebel’s Romance - If any horse deserves a domestic Group 1 success, it is surely this globetrotting superstar from the yard of Charlie Appleby. The son of Dubawi has seven top-level wins to his name – all of which have come on foreign soil. Only third behind Goliath in 2024, he arrives on the back of an excellent win in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes. However, he’s seven years old now, which is a year older than any winner in the history of the race.

Rebel’s Romance would rate a popular winner, but that age trend is tough to ignore. Calandagan is a narrow second choice, but on reviewing the Coronation Cup, we feel Jan Brueghel was a more comfortable winner than the narrow winning margin suggests. With a similar pace set up in store here, the Aidan O’Brien runner looks the one to be on.

• Recommended Bet - Jan Brueghel to win @ 7/4 with PricedUp