Value Betting Explained
Value Betting is arguably one of the most commonly used and referred to terms in betting. At the same time, value betting is also one of the most efficient betting techniques used for acquiring profit.
Self-respecting tipsters will make it a mission of their own to always try to find the value bets and exploit the differences between a team’s chances of winning in relation to odds given by the bookmakers.
The best way – and the simplest one – to explain the value betting is to lay it out as a bet that you believe is one which offers chances of a team winning that are better and higher than the actual odds on a given outcome.
All you need to do in order to become a success at value betting is to have good understanding of the sport you are betting on and a good eye for noticing value before it gets too late. Value bets are illusive and can often last just for a couple of hours, days if you get lucky. Still, understanding the value is key to long-term betting.
For new players and those bettors who are just starting to dip their hands in this world, value betting can come as a complicated concept, but for the more seasoned tipster it comes natural and a common sense.
How to find a value bet?
The shortest answer you can get is – through knowledge.
Tipsters who are keen on becoming experienced with Value Betting need to have a good knowledge of the game which is acquired by dedicated work and tenacious researching. You need to be diligent and always on your toes as bookmakers will often make common mistakes by putting a price on a team based on their position on the table, or simply by the most recent results and not by current form, hunger and motivation to win.
What any self-respecting tipster will do prior to making a bet is checking the odds early on. An early bird catches the worm, or in this case a good value bet. In some cases – and in minor leagues in particular – betting operators will assess the odds and edit them once all the relevant team info is available, so make sure to grab some early high-priced bets based on your knowledge and before bookies pick up on the insider info you had on a certain team.
You need to watch as many games as possible and get the lowdown on each team you want to bet on and this is the only way to gain an upper hand on the bookies and to be one step ahead of them.
How to calculate value bets?
Sometimes a glance is all you need as your gut feeling will tell you whether to back or not to back Crystal Palace to stun Arsenal at the Emirates. Still, most of the time it is better to go with a formula that will to greater extent tell you if you have a value bet or not.
If you get a 2.80 on Palace to win, the value of betting on them is calculated like this:
Value = (Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1
Given the fact we do not know the exact probability of the outcome, all we can do is to give our best guess based on the knowledge we have. With Arsenal in poor shape and Crystal Palace needing points to survive, let’s go with 60%.
Value = (0.6 * 2.80) – 1 which makes 0.68.
If the value is greater than 0, then we have a value bet, which in this case is quite a solid number.