University of Tokyo Researchers Build Betting Forecast Models to Beat Bookies
The University of Tokyo has been making plenty of waves in the academic community of late.
Firstly, a group of Japanese scientists have invented an approach to quantum computing which is able to render a significantly larger number of calculations more efficiently than regular quantum computers in a ground-breaking scientific moment.Secondly, a team of researchers from the same University went on to develop a code that would collect different odds on football matches from all around the world to calculate the average odds on each game spot the outliers and went through a series of tests to increase the winning percentage.
A line of data spanning from 2005 to 2015 with odds and outcomes of nearly 500,000 football matches were analysed through a test run to the system, resulting in a 44% of winning bets in a 3.5% yield from over 56.000 imaginary bets worth $50.The test resulted in an imaginary profit of $98,500 before the team decided to test their luck in another simulation. Having chosen 2,000 random bets, the team from the University of Tokyo won 39% of the bets but ended up gaining a 3.2$ return which marked a $93,000 loss.
“The probability of obtaining a return greater than or equal to $98,865 in 56,435 bets using a random bet strategy is less than one in a billion,” the team said following the second simulation.The researchers used odds given by the bookmakers on aggregate bets which – they believe – are a fairer reflection of the likelihood of an outcome to occur. The problem they did not count on is the fact these generous special offers are only available to close to the match itself and/or for a limited time only.
So in the end, the researchers decided to run a more realistic test by placing bets on odds available from one to five hours prior to the beginning of each game. In order to do this, they ended up developing a software system which collected ods from September 2015 to February 2016.
The results were positive as researchers got a yield of 9.9% with a $34,932 profit out of nearly 7,000 bets worth £50.
Having checked and double-checked their theories, the researchers proceeded to a real-money test where they placed 265 bets of $50, ending the test with a $957.50 profit for an 8.5% return.The bookies responded, however, and wanted to put a stop on their method by severely limiting’ their accounts. The researchers would be told their odds would be limited or bets subject to ‘manual inspection’ before they could be accepted.
Researchers were not exactly happy with bookmakers’ response, claiming such practice could not only be unfair but also ‘illegal’.
“Advertising goods or services with intent not to sell them as advertised, or advertising goods or services with no intent to supply reasonably expectable demand but with the intention to lure the client to buy another product (a practice often called ‘bait’ or ‘bait and switch’ advertising), is considered false advertising and carries pecuniary penalties in the U.K., Australia, and the United States of America.”, they point out.
Read Original research here